POLL: Murphy leads by 25 points in first ‘likely’ voter survey

Quinnipiac says it isn’t close.

According to the first post-Labor Day public polling results, garnered from interviews with 875 “likely” New Jersey voters, Democrat Phil Murphy leads Republican Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno by 25-points (58 – 33) percent.

Guadagno wins Republicans by a 78 – 16 margin. Murphy wins every other category including white men (46 to 45).

Pre-Labor Day registered voter polls found Murphy leading Guadagno by similarly safe margins. An internal Guadagno poll claimed a very different environment, insisting its candidate was down by only 9-points as the general election got underway.

“As far as candidate qualifications go, New Jersey is holding a stealth election. Democrat Phil Murphy swamps Republican Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno, but about 40 percent of voters don’t know much about either of them,” said Maurice Carroll, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll. 

Those surveyed said taxes remain their top priority/concern but either don’t know, or don’t seem to care, about Murphy’s plan to raise taxes by $1.3 billion

Guadagno’s largest impediments continue to be frustratingly detached from the issues: (1) New Jersey’s blue tint and (2) guilt by association with her unpopular boss.

“Working for Goldman Sachs hurts Murphy a little,” opined Carroll. “Serving as lieutenant governor to Gov. Chris Christie hurts Guadagno a lot more. “

Click here for the full Q Poll results.

Responding to the first big fall poll, the Guadagno campaign didn’t mince words.

“Public polling is garbage and often uses flawed methodology that favors Democrats,” shot back Guadagno spokesman Ricky Diaz in a statement received by Save Jersey. “Case in point: The Quinnipiac Poll showed Governor Corzine leading Chris Christie by 5 points as late as October 26, 2009. Our internal polling shows Kim Guadagno within striking distance of Goldman Sachs Millionaire Phil Murphy, who is weak, undefined and wildly out-of-touch with New Jersey families because of his promise to raise taxes by more than $1.3 billion.” 

The campaign also teased Quinnipiac for failing to predict the 2009 gubernatorial election contest by a relatively wide margin by sharing the following chart: