Quinnipiac’s last New Jersey gubernatorial poll had been universally recognized as an outlier, Save Jerseyans, so low and behold, they’ve come out with a second poll showing Kim Guadagno gaining 8 points on Phil Murphy over approximately two weeks.
Democrat Phil Murphy now leads 53 – 41 percent over the Republican, Guadagno, among ‘likely’ voters.
He was purportedly ahead by 20 points (57 – 37 percent) when the last batch of results dropped on October 25th.
“In blue New Jersey, a Republican who can’t solidly carry independent voters is a candidate unlikely to win a statewide election,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll. “Lt Gov. Kim Guadagno is doing fine among Republicans, but is only breaking even among independents and that doesn’t appear nearly enough to offset Phil Murphy’s overwhelming edge among Democrats.”
Guadagno’s deficit on Election Eve on the RealClearPolitics polling average is 14.4%.
Did she really gain 8 points?
Dunno. Skeptics will say Q realized it was out in left field and went back into the field to correct their errors (e.g. Ed Gillespie just gained 6-points in a week down in Virginia per Quinnipiac).
What it does suggest — at the absolute very least — is that the public polling consensus is moving further away from a catastrophic 18+ point Murphy landslide.
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