NJ-11 Poll: Webber, Sherrill locked in a dead heat

MORRIS PLAINS, N.J. — The race between Jay Webber (R) and Mikie Sherrill (D) to replace Rodney Frelinghuysen in NJ-11 remains too close to call.

That’s according to a new poll from Monmouth University released Tuesday:

“Sherrill currently holds a 48% to 44% lead over Webber among likely voters using Monmouth’s standard midterm turnout model, with 1% supporting another candidate and 6% undecided. The race stands at 50% for Sherrill and 43% for Webber using a model that incorporates a turnout surge in Democratic precincts. A model projecting lower overall turnout shows Sherrill with a 48% to 45% edge over Webber. These results are in line with where the race stood in Monmouth’s June poll, except there are now fewer undecided voters.

At that time, Sherrill was ahead by 4 points in the standard model (44%-40%), with 15% undecided.  She also led by 6 points in the Democratic surge model (45%-39%) and by 3 points in the low turnout model (44%-41%). All leads in the current likely voter models are within the margin of error for the poll.”

That’s 1-point off of where Republicans reported their polling had the race back at the end of September. Webber’s close polling position, in a rough cycle where he’s being outspent dramatically by his rival, is raising GOP optimism for a potential upset; Sherrill has raised a record $7 million to date.

Click here to view the full polling report.