By Matt Rooney
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The biggest unknown heading into New Jersey’s Election 2020 isn’t whether freshman U.S. Rep. Jeff Van Drew (D, N.J.-2) is vulnerable. That’s a given, Save Jerseyans.
The real question: where will Van Drew line up on the field? And who stands to gain (and lose) the most? If it sounds too good to be true? It is. Almost all the time.
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We live in interesting times. Van Drew – a long time state senator before taking over retiring Republican Frank LoBiondo’s CD-2 House seat in 2018 – began this cycle insisting he’d remain a Democrat. However, when it became clear that Van Drew was only one of two House Dems nationwide opposing the impeachment inquiry, his party’s leadership both locally and in Trenton began to stiff-arm him. It’s almost unheard of for a party establishment to abandon a vulnerable incumbent NOT in the grips of a personal scandal (remember: this is the same Democrat establishment that stood unanimously behind Bob Menendez). This time, even Senate President Steve Sweeney isn’t declaring for his fellow South Jerseyan at the moment. There’s talk of a primary challenge from a relatively well-connected college professor who lives in his district. The sum of all parts: the Democrats may not want Van Drew to remain a Democrat.
So it’s not too hard to see why national Republicans view a potential Van Drew party switch as appealing.
You can feel it, can’t you? An endless parade of boorish insider types on C-SPAN put the public to sleep and tested the patience of anyone still awake. Impeachment is losing steam. “Obstruction” and “abuse of power” are the sort of broad, non-specific crimes you go with when concrete stuff like “bribery” and “treason” are unsupported by evidence. Real prosecutors would’ve spiked this case a long time ago. Impeachment 2019 is going to backfire in epic fashion. It already is in key states. Consequently, pro-Trump forces believe a Democrat switching parties over impeachment is a too-hard-to-resist narrative for Team Trump and a massive PR victory which it believes would help keep the momentum growing in the President’s favor. The Trumpster keeps tweeting about Van Drew for a reason.
Trump-blessed or not, Van Drew is nevertheless going to be a painfully hard sell for the South Jersey Republicans he’d need to win as a Republican candidate. Accepting Van Drew into the GOP’s ranks would also be short-sighted for the Trumpster and his agenda.
He’d still face a knock-down drag-out primary. Neither the well-heeled and capable David Richter nor the grassroots-strong Brian Fitzherbert plan to leave the primary if he gets in, and a few significant NJ-02 party leaders have already indicated they’re Never Van Drew’ers. My first post-college volunteerism on the trail was the 2007 Asselta campaign which saw then-Assemblyman Jeff Van Drew ride anti-Iraq War sentiment into the State Senate. I know this district; asking its Republican foot soldiers to fall in line behind Van Drew is sort of like asking the Rebel Alliance to get behind Darth Vader. The election of Mike Testa’s legislative slate is the next best thing to blowing up the Death Star for LD1/CD2 GOP’ers, and they want to keep it going. I can’t see the vast majority of county committee members forgetting all of the years that Van Drew actively undermined their electoral efforts. I certainly couldn’t and wouldn’t.
Btw – he’s not really a “moderate,” only perhaps by 2019-2020 Democrat standards. It’s a myth. He’s voted with Nancy Pelosi 91% of the time in his first year in Congress, and while he’s on anti-impeachment side, Van Drew is also on record deriding the President’s actions as “unsavory.” That’s a tough position to defend in a rural, “working class” district that voted for Donald Trump in 2016 and gave a superiorly-funded Van Drew less than an 8-point margin.
There’s also the matter of his political allegiances. Van Drew is a South Jersey Machine Democrat of the Norcross/Sweeney faction. Sweeney might be publicly holding him at arm’s length right now, but were he to win reelection to his seat as a Republican, could South Jersey Republicans expect him to represent them? And help grow the GOP in places like Gloucester and Cumberland counties? Or continue to represent the interests of the Camden political cartel? This one isn’t difficult to work out. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if we ultimately confirm some of the same old Christiecrat types are behind the party switch buzz.
We’ll see what happens. I suspect Van Drew should be favored to lose whether he runs as a Democrat or independent candidate next year. The tide is rising against him, so there’s no need to lease a “RINO” when we can put a real conservative in his place.
If he does run as a Republican? South Jersey Republicans may need to decide whether what’s good for their President’s impeachment narrative is also best for South Jersey and its Republican movement. I’m dubious.
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