Murphy’s COVID-19 stats are designed to frighten you. Should they? | Rooney

By Matt Rooney
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3.5%. That’s the official current New Jersey fatality rate for COVID-19; our state had over 50,000 positive tests and exactly 1,932 coronavirus-related deaths as of Good Friday afternoon.

Fortunately for everyone, Save Jerseyans, that number is probably high. Very high. We need to figure out how high ASAP. Our economy depends upon the answer.

It’s far easier to get a solid figure for the economic carnage. Draconian “social-distancing” restrictions have resulted in 576,904 job losses (and counting) as of last Friday. The unemployment rate may exceed 30% nationally. If COVID-19 is perceived to be spreading exponentially? Governor Murphy will never relent and ease up on the lockdown (God knows the legislature doesn’t have balls to step in). In fact, the raw number of unemployed will continue to climb at a far-higher rate than COVID-19 cases are being confirmed if the economy remains shuttered indefinitely.

What if most or many or ENOUGH of us already have this thing?

It’s possible.

Wildly-changing models have projected a U.S. death toll as high as over 2 million and now, more recently, the lionized Dr. Fauci says 60,000-ish is likely (which is basically a bad flu season). The models are educated guesses at best as we’ve seen sooooo many times in the climate change context; in this context, they fluxuate in part because the impact of social-distancing remains unclear. More problematic, however, is the fact that none of these wise old men have any idea (1) precisely how contagious this thing is nor (2) how many people have it.

That last part is critical.

In late March, an Oxford study surmised that 50% of the United Kingdom had already contracted the virus. Smart people suspect it’s a similar situation on this side of the Pond where millions – not the 466,000 currently confirmed – are infected. Limited testing and the belief that most infected persons are asymptomatic ‘silent carriers.’ The CDC has studies that are just getting underway to arrive at a more accurate estimate. Experts believe our outbreak originated in Europe. One study out of Germany suggests 15% of the population may already have antibodies for the virus meaning herd immunity – and an end to the lockdown – could be close at hand. Our country’s antibody tests could still be a week away.

Closer to home? Some experts are looking into whether COVID-19 arrived in California last fall and, in fact, America’s most populous state is already at the herd immunity threshold.

All of this matters. Greatly.

For example, if 4,663,960 Americans are already infected? As opposed to the 466,396 who’ve been diagnosed? The real U.S. mortality rate is more like 0.35%. That’s still more deadly than the seasonal flu (< 0.1% on average; the CDC is projecting 20,000 to 60,000 deaths for the current U.S. flu season) but a far-less apocalypic number than is currently being presented to a terrified public. The hospital systems in most regions of the country would survive the strain.

If the hospitals are okay, t hat would also mean we could get back to work and our normal lives FAR SOONER than we’re currently being warned is likely. 

I’m not telling you COVID-19 isn’t dangerous. I’m also not dismissing this virus as “just the flu.” I’m not even suggesting we can get back to “business as usual” tomorrow morning in all 50 states.

I am saying that there’s a good chance we’ll confirm “the cure” is presently as catestrophic as the disease in its own way (or at least not helping to the degree social-distancing fanatics insist) once data soon-to-be in the pipeline arrives (see above). Elected officials including Phil Murphy and Andrew Cuomo know this; their daily recitations of scary-sounding statistics are deliberately designed to scare citizens into compliance AND, of course, justify their extraordinary measures purportedly tailored to combat the virus’s spread.

They’ll have plenty to answer for if researchers in Germany and California are on to something. After all, these state-wide lockdowns aren’t victimless exercises. Retirements, businesses, and dreams have been wiped away with the stroke of a few pens across hastily-drafted executive orders. Executive orders can’t bring them back.

Matt Rooney
About Matt Rooney 8403 Articles
MATT ROONEY is SaveJersey.com's founder and editor-in-chief, a practicing New Jersey attorney, and the host of 'The Matt Rooney Show' on 1210 WPHT every Sunday evening from 7-10PM EST.