WEST LONG BRANCH, N.J. – New Jersey Democrats picked up one House seat in 2016 (NJ-05) and four in 2018 (NJ-02, 03, 07 and 11). At this same point last cycle? In April 2018? The Monmouth University Poll found Democrats in those districts with an overall 7-point aggregate lead (49% to 42%) over the GOP alternatives.
Today, a new Monmouth poll finds the Republican candidates leading within the margin of error: 46% to 45%.
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“Democratic incumbents in New Jersey’s ‘blue wave’ districts face a tough challenge heading into November. The terrain does not look quite as friendly as it did two years ago even with a strong performance by their party at the top of the ticket this year,” said Patrick Murray, the head of Monmouth Polling.
NJ-02 is now a lean-Republican seat following Jeff Van Drew’s late 2019 party switch.
The NRCC has all four remaining districts on its target list, but the establishment decision-makers believe NJ-03 and NJ-07 (in that order) present the strongest opportunities for pick ups followed by NJ-11 and NJ-05 where strong incumbent fundraising and shifting suburban attitudes present added challenges for Republican hopefuls.
Click here to view the full polling report.
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