VINELAND, N.J. – Republicans may be in danger of losing a close Trump ally and a rare recent bright spot for the New Jersey GOP.
A new Monmouth University Polling Institute released Monday found Jeff Van Drew – the incumbent congressman who switched to the GOP last Christmas over impeachment – trailing challenger Amy Kennedy by 5-points: 49% to 45%. That’s inside the poll’s margin of error but still an alarming development for the incumbent who won his freshman term in 2018 as a Democrat by 6-points.
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Republican and unaffiliated voter enthusiasm for Van Drew is the proximate problem (assiming the poll is accurate).
Kennedy boasts 94% of Democrat support while Van Drew pulls only 1%. By contrast, Van Drew leads among Republicans by a slighly less powerful 89% to 8% margin and loses independents by a 10-point (50% to 40%) margin.
Kennedy currently leads by 54% to 39% in Atlantic County (a key swing county in down-ballot races) and is also narrowly ahead in Cape May and Cumberland Counties cumulatively (48% to 43%), the counties which comprise LD1 – the legislative district represented by Van Drew before he was elevated to Congress.
In 2018, Van Drew won Atlantic, Cape May and Cumberland counties overall by double-digit margins.
“Cape May and Cumberland county voters got used to supporting Van Drew on the Democratic ticket. This time around many of them are sticking with the party rather than the candidate,” said Patrick Murray, the director of the poll.
President Trump isn’t faring any better.
He currently trails Joe Biden by a 50% to 45% margin among the district’s likely voters assuming what Murray describes as a “high turnout” model. Trump carried the district by 5 points in 2016; Barack Obama carried NJ-02 in 2008 and 2012.
2020 began much stronger for Trump and Van Drew; after a widely-publicized Oval Office meet-up, Trump held a large early-2020 rally in Wildwood, New Jersey at the heart of Van Drew’s district.
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