By Matt Rooney
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The New Jersey legislative landscape is changing quickly heading into primary season, Save Jerseyans, so I thought it might be good to give you a VERY CONCISE run-down of the current state of play on the GOP side. Plenty of you have asked for it. Each of these districts deserves individual treatment and we’ll get to it soon.
For now…
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LD1
State Senator Mike Testa along with Assemblymen Erik Simonsen and Antwan McClellan captured these seats for the GOP in 2019 for the first time in nearly a generation (1999 to be precise). South Jersey Democrats absolutely want these seats back but there’s a problem: this legislative district – at the heart of Jeff Van Drew’s NJ-02 and loaded up with rural voters, small business owners and retirees – is one of the few in New Jersey that’s actually getting more Republican. Van Drew’s late 2019 party switch also took some of his operation with him when he joined the GOP leaving the Democrat bench in LD1 less-than-robust. Republicans are favored to hold the line here.
LD2
A lot hinges here upon whether Chris Brown (R-2) is seeking reelection to the State Senate this year. He’s got Diane Allen-like popularity in this Atlantic County district; if he doesn’t run, Democrats will be slightly favored to flip the seat (probably with Assemblyman Vince Mazzeo who ran and lost to Brown before). At least three Republicans will compete for two Assembly seats: Atlantic City Councilman Jesse Kurtz, ex-A.C. Mayor Don Guardian, and GOP Comissioner John Risley. Although it’s voter registration makes winning here hard for Republicans, this district has been uniquely devastated by Phil Murphy’s COVID-19 lockdown regime. The right candidates with the right message could score an upset (note: Republicans actually WON the Assembly seats on the machines in 2019 but lost when VBM ballots were counted, a point which underscores how winnable this district remains).
LD3
There’s hasn’t been much focus on this sprawling Southwest Jersey district yet this cycle; it’s home to Senate President Steve Sweeney, but it’s also one of only two districts in New Jersey (along with LD1) that went for Trump in 2016 despite being represented in the legislature by an all-Democrat slate. Never say never in LD3. The right candidates and the right cycle will eventually come along.
LD8
This is a top battleground for 2021. Assemblyman Ryan Peters (R-8) isn’t seeking reelection to focus on his legal career and young family, and Assemblywoman Jean Stanfield (R-8), Burlington County’s former sheriff, is taking own Republican turncoat State Senator Dawn Addiego (D-8). Former Burlington County Freeholder Latham Tiver and Hammonton Councilman Michael Torrissi, Jr. are expected to be Stanfield’s her running mates. This suburban Philly district’s large towns like Evesham Township have been going woke as of late, but Trump’s absence from the ballot and lingering GOP base anger over Addiego’s early 2019 betrayal have elevated GOP optimism in the district.
LD11
Exclusively Republican in representation as recently as 2015, Monmouth County’s LD11 got smacked hard in 2015 by NJEA cash and then Vin Gopal – a young star in the Democrat Party – flipped the district to an all-Democrat delegation. Republicans think that could change in 2021 if they can recruit the right candidates. Retiree migration to the beach including to surprising places like Asbury Park make this district more winnable than some believe based solely upon who LD11 voters sent to Trenton. Keep this one on your watch list especially if Murphy isn’t doing well come the fall.
LD12
This Middlesex/Monmouth/Burlington district won’t go D this year, but veteran State Senator Sam Thompson (R-12), an old school moderate Republican with a Southern accent (he’s originally from Mobile, Alabama) is drawing a primary challenge from an ex-Democrat: Old Bridge Councilman Mark Razzoli, a conservative populist with decent instincts. Can the former police detective Razzoli retire Thompson? TBD.
LD16
This is another district that was all-Republican not too long ago. The demographics are tough because LD16 includes towns like Princeton that have turned outright hostile towards the GOP in its current form. Liberal Republican Kip Bateman, the incumbent state senator, is retiring this year. Republicans may run even-more-liberal Republican Dick Zimmer (a former congressman in his mid-70s) as his replacement. The Democrats are likely to field one of their two Assemblymen (Zwicker, a real loon) to face the GOP senate nominee. Don’t get your hopes up here.
LD21
Tom Kean Jr. is leaving his Senate Seat to go all-in on a 2022 congressional rematch with Tom Malinowski. Assemblyman Jon “I’ve hung out at Phil Murphy’s house” Bramnick is the favorite for the GOP Senate nomination. That not only means both current Republican legislative leadership posts will be open come next session, but it also leaves two Assembly seats open in a rapidly-changing suburban New York district that now has something like 10,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans. Candidates for the open slots include Summit Republican Municipal Chairman Steve Spurr, a young conservative with his head screwed on correctly. I think this district (after LD16) is the most likely to go blue this year if Republicans run the wrong kind of race; multiple connected Democrats have already expressed interest in running.
LD25
Tony Bucco and Aura Dunn won tough special election fights here in 2020 by impressive margins notwithstanding a Biden/Booker/Sherrill romp in Burlington County. The Democrats will be back for another round in 2021 because highly-educated burbs are no longer safe for Republicans almost anywhere, but I won’t be surprised if LD2, LD8, LD16 and LD21 draw most of the cash and energy this time around since open seats are usually better bets than those defended by incumbents who’ve proved themselves in political combat.
LD39
Like LD12, the real action here is on the primary side where Assemblywoman Holly Schepisi looks poised to force State Senate Gerry Cardinale’s retirement. It’s another generational battle. Cardinale is a pretty conservative guy but he also joined the legislature before yours truly was born. The Assembly picture for Schepisi’s open seat will flesh out once it’s clear – assuming it does become clear – that she’s going to take the Senate nomination away from Cardinale.
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