I don’t know too many Republicans who think Jack Ciattarelli is ahead with under six weeks left to go before Election Day 2021, Save Jerseyans, but most also don’t believe November 2nd is shaping up to be a 2017-rout as predicted by the latest Monmouth University poll.
“A range of potential electorate models* show Murphy with a lead from 9 points to 14 points, depending on the scenario (compared to a range of 11 to 19 points last month),” Monmouth’s Patrick Murray opined on Wednesday. “Murphy’s lead is the most narrow among voters who have cast ballots in every general election since 2016 (50% to 43%). This is smaller than his lead among these consistent voters last month (53% to 38%), but this group represents only one-third of the potential electorate. Turnout will likely be higher than this – it was 39% in 2017 – and Murphy holds a double-digit lead among less consistent voters, including a 51% to 40% lead specifically among those who voted in the 2017 gubernatorial contest.”
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One of the Republicans who thinks Monmouth’s analysis is off base is Jim McLaughlin, a prominent national pollster who worked extensively with President Trump:
Because many have asked, everything I'm seeing says NJ Gov race is competitive. Monmouth poll significantly undersamples GOP voters. Even w Dem skew, half of voters in Monmouth don't support Murphy & he is only 48% favorable. Most undecideds will break overwhelmingly 4 challenger https://t.co/XDeG0whEIy
— Jim McLaughlin (@JMcLaughlinSTK) September 23, 2021
