It’s not a surprise, Save Jerseyans, but Democrats got the map they wanted. New Jersey Congressional Redistricting Commission tiebreaker John Wallace plans to vote for the Democrat map during today’s meeting; the decision was first reported by New Jersey Globe.
The basics:
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- Jeff Van Drew and Chris Smith – the GOP’s two incumbents – are in good shape (although Smith’s hometown of Hamilton is now in NJ-03, so he’ll likely “move”).
- Tom Malinowski is the only Democrat incumbent having a bad day. His district is pulling in red areas like Warren County and losing more friendly territory in places like Union County. Considering the building red wave and the fact that he only won in 2020 by 4,000 votes? He’s in deep trouble.
- The other vulnerable Dems – Andy Kim, Josh Gottheimer, and Mikie Sherrill – now have bluer districts at least on paper. For example, NJ-03 no longer has ANY of deep red Ocean County which makes winning the new district much more difficult for a Republican.
The bottom line: the MOST LIKELY result this November (if you were a betting man or woman) would be a GOP net pick up of one seat.
It’s a huge disappointment for Republicans but not exactly surprising given former Justice Wallace’s deep roots in South Jersey Democrat world (Andy Kim should definitely send him a Christmas card). The complete lack of transparancy in the process (Wallace refused to let the opposing parties see or comment on each other’s maps) is also worthy of sustained criticism. We clearly need a better process.
But keep in mind that waves – if one does crash on our shores next fall – produce unpredictable results, Save Jerseyans. There were also districts thought to be solidly lean red after 2011’s redistricting process which nevertheless changed character as shifts in the suburbs shifted the playing field. There’s no telling what next year or the next decade will bring.
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