National Republicans are clapping a bit this morning after a holiday weekend ratings change from the Cook Political Report in NJ-07.
The popular prognostication website for federal elections has moved NJ-7 from its toss up list to “lean Republican” following the pre-Christmas release of a new redistricting map.
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“Tom Malinowski’s pandemic profiteering has followed him into the new year and will haunt him until he loses this November,” said NRCC Spokeswoman Samantha Bullock in a statement.
Malinowski bested Tom Kean Jr. by only 4,000 votes in 2020 in a district that’s now significantly redder. Kean is the frontrunner for the GOP nomination again in 2022 but he’ll need to get through a primary field that is likely to expand over the coming weeks.
Meanwhile, the newly redrawn NJ-03 (Kim) and NJ-11 (Sherrill) are now considered “solid” Democrat for 2022 while Josh Gottheimer’s NJ-05 is considered “likely” Democrat.
Something worth noting regarding NJ-03: last year, Phil Murphy won the new NJ-03 and NJ-05 by the same slim margin (1-point) over Jack Ciattarelli. Taken together with the fact that Kim has drawn a high-dollar opponent (Bob Healey), calling the South Jersey district “solid” may be a stretch.
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