Redistricting is power – that’s what the advocates told us.
The power to elect representatives of our choosing.
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The power to hold them accountable when they fail us.
The power to have a legislature that resembles our demographics.
The power to have a legislature with an agenda that encompasses our values.
The legislative map adopted on Friday did just that.
It also made history.
For the first time you had a legislative apportionment commission that was co-chaired by a Democrat, who happens to be African American and a Republican, who happens to be a Pakistani-born Muslim American. Most importantly, we achieved a consensus map for the first time in the history of legislative redistricting.
Speaking only for the Republican Delegation, our goal, from when we came together nearly two years ago, was to get to a finished product that as New Jerseyeans we could be proud of and as Republicans a map that put us in the position to take the majority.
Over the course of these nearly two years, we held meetings with invested stakeholders throughout the state. We met with county chairs, local leaders, municipal chairs, mayors, community activists, legislators, trade groups, faith-based leaders, unions, and anybody that called with an idea or thought about the redistricting process. No stone was left unturned in our quest to gather as much information as possible as we formulated our mapmaking strategies. Every suggestion given or nugget of information provided was “cataloged” for use later. We wanted to make sure that everything we collected made its way into “the room.”
Our strategy was to find the combination of balancing constitutional mandates, opportunities for ensuring our legislature is reflective of our State’s diversity, the needs of our incumbents, communities of interest and creating competitive districts that gave us the opportunity to pick up seats. Trust me when I say hundreds of maps got deleted because they fell short on a few of these criterium. As anyone who tried to draw maps knows, map making is the epitome of trial-and-error.
Each of our commissioners brought their unique perspectives to our team and helped mold that strategy. For Commissioner DuBois it was about protecting the gains in the south in districts 1, 2, 3, and 8 as well as figuring out a way to make District 4 better for Republicans. Commissioner Lavery was committed to ensuring we adhered to the constitution and kept counties whole while also realizing that republican “rich” areas had to “share their wealth” if we were to win. Commissioners Kean and Bramnick, who as leaders of their respective caucuses, spent years recruiting candidates, raising them money, helping them get elected were focused on delivering a map that positioned us for further growth and opportunities.
As commissioners we were in agreement that our submissions for the Judge’s review had to be aggressive but simultaneously negotiate a map that would result in a positive outcome for Republicans. We knew we had to protect the gains we have made in the south in LDs 1, 2, 3, and 8. Ensure that they didn’t try and make LD11 too far out of reach for a great senate candidate (Hint hint: Christine Hanlon/Tom Arnone), which the Democrats (and a few Republicans not in the room) were pushing very hard for. In LD16 we needed to prevent the Democrats from putting West Windsor in and guaranteeing they take a competitive district off the board for the next decade. When it came to LD38, under no circumstances were the Democrats getting their wish of putting Hackensack into that district.
Every round of negotiations was a give and take between both sides, but never was walking away with was just safe incumbents an option. Do we all wish we got more? Of course. We would’ve loved Rumson in LD11, Bridgewater in LD16, more northern Bergen County towns in LD38. But just like any good compromise/consensus everyone had to give and take a bit. The alternative, however, would’ve been rolling the dice with a tiebreaker who had the infamous cricket-eating/Democratic primary voting Princeton Professor Sam Wang as his advisor.
At one point, Sam Wang ran an analysis of our submission and his kabuki math determined that if Republicans got 45% of the statewide vote, we would win 23 districts! While we would all love to win 23 districts, I don’t know anyone who lives in a world outside of a classroom who believes that in a state with 1 million more democrats than republicans you win 23 districts with just 45% of the vote. Well at least anyone who isn’t going to go out of their way to ensure that Republicans are in a perpetual minority, no matter what people of New Jersey want.
When faced with that opponent, our choices were less than ideal. Now, I want to be clear, under no circumstances do I believe Judge Carchman was anything but honest, straightforward, and fair, but knowing that his advisors were going to do whatever they could to rig the outcome against us we had to figure out a way to get the best possible result for our party and the voters of New Jersey.
Not only does this map put us in a position to claim the Senate Presidency and Speakership, but it also helps county and municipal candidates throughout the state. A 3.5 point swing in LD4 in our favor means more resources to help the Gloucester County GOP take control of county government. Bridgeton in LD1, with the powerhouse team of Senator Testa and Assemblymen McClellan and Simonsen, means the Cumberland GOP no longer must worry about South Jersey Dems driving up turnout there to keep the Senate Presidency. Galloway back in LD2 should mean the Dems won’t view that district and local races worthy of much investment. Shoring up LD8 for the next decade will allow the Burlington GOP to focus on retaking the Board of Commissioners instead trying to withstand a multimillion-dollar avalanche that impacts every level of government. Sommerville out of LD16 positions the Somerset Republicans to not only win back that district but also reclaim county government that was lost back in 2019. A solidly republican LD12 means Senator Sam Thomson continues to be a check to the Democrats in Middlesex. Moving Dick Codey out of Morris County results in the Morris GOP no longer worrying about a Democrat legislator trying to flip local seats. Making the changes we did to the configurations in LDs 25 and 26 means the goal of NJ11 for Change to wipe out our conservative voices in Jay Webber and Brian Bergen will have to wait – at least a decade. Ensuring that the LD39 delegation is safe prevents the Democrat party from spending millions of dollars to flip local seats in hopes of one day beating our team there. LD38 stays competitive, which means the BCRO can recruit great candidates not only for the legislature but also local office – creating a bench of terrific young leaders for our party in Bergen County.
For the first time in 30 years we have a legislative map where we are NOT playing defense to protect incumbents. Let that sink in for a minute. Not in 3 decades have we been able to focus our efforts solely on taking the majority. Which starts now. It starts with NJGOP Chairman Bob Hugin, Senate Republican Leader Steve Oroho and Assembly Republican Leader John DiMaio. Our party’s leadership is already focused on recruiting candidates in these competitive districts and over the next year and a half providing them with the tools and resources necessary to win.
If redistricting is about power, then the power is finally ours!
P.S. I would be remiss if I also did not acknowledge our team. Our Commissioners gave a lot to serve on the Apportionment Commission, but none of it would’ve happened if it wasn’t for the tireless work of Brian Alpert, Mark Duffy, Michael Molimock, Matt Gould, Kevin Logan, Jason Torchinsky, John Morgan, Clark Benson and Tom Syzmanski. Every single of them gave their all to the cause and were instrumental in the final product. We couldn’t have done it without you. Thank you!
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AL BARLAS served as the New Jersey Legislative Apportionment Commission’s co-chairman.
