Where do Election 2022’s Republican U.S. House primaries stand now that New Jersey convention season is winding down?
Here are some general notes, Save Jerseyans (see below).
A word of caution: as I’ll mention repeatedly below, we’re waiting on Q1 fundraising data which could make some races more competitive and others less so. These aren’t predictions of the final outcome; simply snapshots of where the race probably stood at the end of the convention season…
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NJ-03
This one arguably remains the most interesting, folks, although the recent March 27th DWI arrest of Ian Smith could impact the race. Before the 27th, the three-way race (realtor Nicholas Ferrara is also in the mix) was believed to be very competitive despite the fact that the well-heeled but not-well-known Bob Healey had secured all three county lines in the district (Smith chose not to contest them). That’s because the Atilis Gym co-owner had emerged from the pandemic as a minor celebrity on the political Right for having stood up to Governor Murphy’s lockdown edicts. He didn’t think he’d win them anyway. Smith also demonstrated an ability to raise cash during his gym’s pandemic-related legal struggles. If there was ever a candidate well-positioned to win off of the line? Ian Smith was it.
The challenge for Smith moving forward is obvious: his second DWI arrest (the first one a decade and a half ago involved a fatality) could negatively influence Republican primary voters who were willing to give him a chance. Worse still, Smith – who insists he’s innocent – might not get a resolution to his court case before primary voting begins.
Watch Smith’s Q1 filing numbers very closely. Healey has already qualified for the NRCC ‘Young Guns’ program and won’t have any money troubles unless they’re self-inflicted. Until we get more clarity…
Our verdict: Toss-Up
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NJ-04
President Trump issued a call for challengers to take on Congressman Chris Smith but 45 has yet to personally intervene. One of the challengers who answered (Mike Crispi) is actively recruiting rival slates in Ocean and Monmouth County. Unless Crispi, backed by none other than Roger Stone, posts a very strong Q1, he still faces an uphill slog in unseating the incumbent. Winning off the line in primaries isn’t impossible by any means, but when it happens (think Jeff Bell’s 2014 four-way Senate primary victory), there usually isn’t a well-known incumbent in the contest. Keep an eye on Crispi’s upcoming FEC filing.
Something else that could flip the script? If Crispi secured a Trump enforcement, something that is never guaranteed. It’s like trying to track the exact path of a hurricane. Until then…
Our verdict: Likely Smith
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NJ-05
This is one of the more competitive GOP primaries in 2022. Frank Pallotta has support in Sussex, the Passaic line, and residual name recognition from his own 2020 candidacy. Newcomer Nick DeGregorio likely has the edge at this point, however, since he won the Bergen line and Bergen constitues better than 80% of the recently-redrawn district. DeGregorio also posted solid fundraising numbers last quarter while Pallotta, never a strong fundraiser despite his time in the banking industry, continued to struggle. The new district favors the candidate with deeper Bergen backing.
NJ-05 is probably lean DeGregorio at this point but only ever-so-slightly. Said another way, you’d much rather be Nick right now but Pallotta can’t be counted out…
Our verdict: Toss-Up
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NJ-06
Monmouth Commissioner Sue Kiley swept the lines (Middlesex and Monmouth) in her quest to challenge Frank Pallone. The entrenched incumbent’s districts is one of those places that COULD be interesting this fall in the event that a massive 1994-style red wave materializes given that Jack Ciattarelli kept it to single digits last November. Kiley will benefit from having run and won county-wide in the new district’s Monmouth towns. Don’t count Rik Mehta out; the 2020 U.S. Senate nominee has some residual name recognition in the tank from that run. NJ-06 is another district we may revisit in the event that Mehta posts an impressive Q1 haul. For now…
Our verdict: Lean Kiley
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NJ-07
Former State Senator Tom Kean Jr. is sitting pretty after sweeping the convention phase of the contest (he made it official by securing Warren over the weekend). Will all of the lines in hand, considerable name recognition, a divided field of opponents, and a hefty bank account (almost one million cash on hand at the end of the last quarter), Kean has to be considered the heavy favorite in June. He came within 4,000 votes of beating Tom Malinowski last time and all indicators point to a more favorable environment for the GOP team this time around. The only thing that could change TK2’s primary odds? One of the GOP rivals (like Phil Rizzo) posts a much stronger-than-expected Q1 fundraising haul and then the other not-Kean candidates drop out and coalesce around one person. That’s unlikely at this stage, so…
Our verdict: Likely Kean
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NJ-11
Morris Commissioner Tayfun Selen is now the heavy favorite after defeating Larry Casha in Morris’s wild two-part convention and subsequently receiving the support of Essex County’s GOP organization. It’s not a done deal: Paul DeGroot, an ex-assistant Passaic County Prosecutor, currently boasts the Passaic County line. Passaic nevertheless represents a small percentage of the Republican vote, so DeGroot will likely need a very good Q1 to change the overall dynamic…
Our verdict: Lean Selen
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