Shock poll shows Norcross challenger nipping at his heels

Shock poll shows Norcross challenger nipping at his heels

It’s encouraging news any way you slice it, Save Jerseyans.

New Jersey’s First Congressional District hasn’t elected a Republican since 1972, and Joe Biden carried the Camden County district with 62% of the vote in 2020. With that history in mind, a new GOP internal poll suggests Democrat fortunes in their bluest South Jersey enclave are on a downward trend.

According to Grassroots Targeting, Democrat incumbent Donald Norcross leads Republican challenger Claire Gustafson in a brand new GOP poll of NJ-01 but by only 5.5-points among registered voters. Gustafson fell 25-points short when she last took on Norcross in 2020.

Joe Biden’s favorability rating is +7 points inside of the district which is especially alarming for South Jersey Democrats given that the president won the district two years ago by a commanding nearly 2-to-1 margin.

Click here to view the full polling report.

Pro political watchers usually view inside surveys with a grain of salt, but this particular survey has had some Garden State-specific successes as of late.

It’s also worth pointing out the obvious: Democrat weakness this cycle (even in a machine district where they’re heavily favored to hold on with a massive spending advantage) suggests that the much-discussed “red wave” is building, widening, and likely to produce rare electoral surprises in November.

South Jersey Republicans will be particularly cheered by what the NJ-01 numbers may mean for Gloucester County, a significant chunk of the district where the county GOP is poised to take control of the freeholder board for the first time in a generation. South Jersey Democrats have been slipping for a few years now, losing major legislative races in LD1, 2, 3, 8, in addition to freeholder battles in every South Jersey county save for Camden and Burlington counties.