POLL: Biden down 18 in N.J., and Republicans are poised to retake the State Senate in ’23

POLL: Biden down 18 in N.J., and Republicans are poised to retake the State Senate in ’23

A new survey from a reputable pollster suggests Democrat fortunes may be darkening in “blue” Jersey, folks, and 2023 is on track to be as ugly as 2022 for the majority party if current trends continue.

“The current political environment for New Jersey Republicans is better than at any point in recent memory,” explains a July memorandum, obtained by Save Jersey, prepared for the GOP firm National Public Affairs (NPA) by Cygnal polling. “Joe Biden’s approval among New Jersey voters is -18% (down from -6% in our February poll). Biden approval among Unaffiliated voters is -38%, with even one third of Democrats disapproving of him. Donald Trump currently maintains a better approval rating in New Jersey than Joe Biden.”

Joe Biden’s net job approval rating is hovering between -17% and -18% on the RCP average.

Click here to read the summary report.

While careful not to tip Republicans’ hand and reveal individual legislative district findings, Cygnal reports that “Joe Biden’s net unfavorability is -10% or worse in every battleground district and Phil Murphy is barely better, with the Governor’s image underwater in each district.”

“Senate Republican candidates hold a 3% lead over Democrats on the generic statewide ballot,” the analysis continued. “Unaffiliated voters favor the Senate Republican candidate by 17% (53-36) and Parents prefer the Senate Republican candidate by 28% (57-29).”

Former Trump campaign manager Bill Stepien in a principal of NPA and is currently providing advisement to the GOP Senate leadership.

Next year looms large for New Jersey Republicans thirsty for a victory. NJGOP operatives and leaders are hoping to target a few swing districts – notably LD4 in South Jersey – for takeover next year. The recent bout of legislative redistricting left a few seats (LD38 and LD11 are also in the mix) vulnerable to GOP candidates in a favorable cycle. Democrats presently enjoy a 24-16 advantage in the upper chamber, and Republicans haven’t enjoyed an outright majority in over 20 years.

More hopeful news: Republicans have slowly but consistently cut into the Democrats’ massive statewide registration advantage post-2020.