Most prognosticators are predicting a one-seat pick up for Republicans in New Jersey this fall and, nationally, a GOP House majority come January 2023.
The million dollar question: as trendlines suggest continue Republican momentum, could one (or more?) other New Jersey Democrat seats get caught up in a “red wave” and change hands?
On Tuesday, Fox News (whose polling unit tends to lean to the Left unlike the network’s news content) upgraded their projected GOP pick up in the U.S. House of Representatives to 233 seats, 15 more than needed for a majority. Fox also changed its rating for the NJ-03 seat of Democrat incumbent Andy Kim from “likely” Democrat to “lean” Democrats as the final two week sprint begins.
In NJ-03, Kim is defending a district that got bluer in redistricting from businessman Bob Healey. Still, Jack Ciattarelli came close a tie with Phil Murphy in the South Jersey district last fall, and conditions for Democrats certainly haven’t improved since then which buoys GOP hopes of a possible upset.
Healey has increasingly shifted his message to crime and parental rights themes in the closing days of Election 2022 after focusing early on affordability and denser policy topics like Social Security. The redrawn suburban Philadelphia district is constructed of Burlington County municipalities as well as portions of Mercer and Monmouth counties.
Fox News continues to rate NJ-05 (Gottheimer) and NJ-11 (Sherrill) as “likely” Democrat but NJ-07 (Malinowski) as “lean” Republican.
Nationally, Republicans currently enjoy a narrow but significant 3-point lead in the RCP average of congressional generic ballot polls.
