Democrats knew what they were doing by expanding vote-by-mail in New Jersey: it’s much easier to bank votes from “low propensity” voters now than it was back when you needed to bus them to the polls.
Ryan Dubicki – a New Jerseyan who works as an election researcher for the Associated Press – has been tracking ballot requests and returns by county AND congressional district and tweeting them out, a service that every political journalist and commentator sincerely appreciates.
Here are the latest numbers:
At this point in time last year for the 2021 General Election, a little over 312,000 mail ballots were returned.
— Ryan Dubicki (@DubickiRyan) October 25, 2022
It’s dangerous to read too much into early vote numbers for a host of reasons not the least of which is the unpredictability of Election Day turnout. We also have no way of knowing what’s still in the mail and, in a year like this, Republicans may pull a higher % of unaffiliated and even Democrat ballots than normal (remember: Biden’s approval among Dems was only 70% in a recent survey).
What we can objectively measure early on:
- The “safe” GOP districts in 2022 of NJ-02 (Van Drew) and NJ-04 (Smith) are seeing Democrat ballot return advantage ratios of < 2:1.
- In NJ-07, where Tom Kean Jr. is expected to flip the seat, the ratio is just a hair above 2:1 Democrat. Keep in mind that the incumbent hung on by just about 4,000 votes last time around after a protracted count.
- In NJ-03, which Fox News just shifted to “lean” Dem from “likely” Dem, the margin is > 3:1 Democrat. If Andy Kim holds on and is reelected in a tight race? Democrats may have vote-by-mail to thank for saving their guy’s political skin. The ratio is similar in NJ-05 btw which could be interesting if the red wave materializes.
- In NJ-11, a seat which was competitive pre-redistricting, Mikie Sherrill has a nearly 4:1 advantage on returns as of today.
