God knows polls aren’t everything, Save Jerseyans, but there’s growing evidence that Republicans may be recovering a decisive edge on the Generic Congressional Ballot with Election Day only a little over three weeks out.
The three latest polls – Harvard-Harris (R +6), Trafalgar Group (R +5), and Rasmussen Reports (R +7) – all show the GOP returning to the level of lead it enjoyed over the summer months prior to gas prices dipping back below $4 per gallon and the issuance of the Dobbs opinion. The last Harvard-Harris poll, for example, found a 2-point Democrat edge in early September.
What’s changed? If anything?
For starters, independent voters may be breaking in the Republicans’ direction.
“The expanded Republican lead is due mainly to a 16-point advantage among independent voters,” Rasmussen Report explains in its latest polling report. “Eighty-five percent (85%) of Republican voters say they would vote for their own party’s congressional candidate, while 82% of Democrats would vote for the Democratic candidate. Among voters not affiliated with either major party, 46% would vote Republican and 30% would vote Democrat, while nine percent (9%) would vote for some other candidate and 15% are undecided.”
Republicans only need five net pick ups to take control of the U.S. House of Representatives. The trillion dollar question is the size of the red wave and whether it’s enough to build a small GOP majority in the lower chamber or a large one accompanied by control of the U.S. Senate.
