When we’re talking about the single-digit tier? Talk of “jumping” and popping inside that range may be a little overly-dramatic.
Still, Chris Christie is up from 1% to 7% over the last month in the New Hampshire GOP primary according to the latest National Research Poll. He’s presently tied with Senator Tim Scott who, in contrast to Christie’s strategy of hammering the former president, is running as Mr. Nice Guy. Assuming this is real, Christie may be benefitting from an initial race entry media attention bounce as well as Governor Sununu’s decision to skip the contest. Interestingly, a recent YouGov/CBS poll found 7% was Christie’s national ceiling.
“When Sununu is taken out of the equation in this months survey, DeSantis did not benefit. A majority of Sununu’s vote share went to Scott and Christie,” the polling report explains.
In 2016, Christie finished 6th in the N.H. GOP primary with… 7.38% of the vote. That might just be his number! We’ll see. Then as now, he’s still got a long way to go before he’s truly in contention. Trump (+5 from May) leads Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (down -6) by a massive 44% to 12% margin.
Something else worth noting: the National Research Inc. poll of 500 “likely” voters was conducted this week (so entirely AFTER news of Jack Smith’s indictment came down).
That’s the bad news for ex-Governor Christie. At least at this point, if you add Trump’s margin to the other populist conservative candidates, a supermajority of the New Hampshire GOP primary electorate is sticking with candidates actively opposing Trump’s indictment. There’s every reason to believe that supermajority is larger in decidely redder Iowa and South Carolina.
2024 New Hampshire Republican Primary:
Trump 44% (+32)
DeSantis 12%
Christie 7%
T. Scott 7%
Haley 5%
Ramaswamy 3%
Pence 3%
Hutchinson 2%National Research Inc./@theamgreatness, 500 LV, 6/12-14https://t.co/waSyeMqYKw pic.twitter.com/EoyG3cB3U6
— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) June 15, 2023
