We’re seeing a fair amount of positive movement in our race ratings, Save Jerseyans, fueled in part by the fact that New Jersey Democrats can’t seem to catch a break. Parental rights. Food prices. Menendez indicted. Now a possible major war in the Middle East on Joe Biden’s watch, and the incumbent president is already underwater in the Garden State (despite posting a healthy double-digit margin here in 2020).
One possible beneficiary of the growing perception that the Biden Democrats are as corrupt as they are dangerously mixed up on the priorities front: the LD38 GOP ticket.
LD38
Biden +14
Murphy +5
Don’t pay attention to the Biden/Murphy numbers above. Pay attention to the fact that the GOP came within 2.5% of winning an Assembly seat here two years ago with virtually no resources.
Now consider that the GOP is running a stronger ticket (which includes North Jersey “Deli King” Barry Wilkes) in a district that didn’t change much (partisan-wise) in redistricting but featuring an improved climate since we last ranked these races around Labor Day (see below). All of a sudden LD38, the “white whale” of Republican operatives across the state for 15 years, suddenly looks to be pretty darn competitive. Competitive enough to say that the Assembly seats are at least “toss ups” which I define literally: based upon an analysis of all known factors, these seats could easily go either way without any entitlement to surprise.
Don’t believe me? You can rely upon the fact that both sides are paying close attention to this race and spending significant resources; Democrats are focusing on abortion (duh) while the GOP ticket is embracing the battle for parental primacy over their children’s medical and mental health. A national Democrat group is even putting a five-figure sum on the street for GOTV in this suburban Bergen County district. It’s also potentially notable that LD36 is now widely considered a dumpster fire by the operative/donor class (after one of the GOP nominee’s criminal history came to light) which could have a silver-lining impact of redistricting some Bergen-destined resources towards LD38.
If I had to pick a single race around the state as a likely “upset” on November 7th, I’d have to say I’m picking this one.
The incumbent Democrat Assemblymen do look more vulnerable than their better-established Senate counterpart, something which is emerging as a trend in many of this cycle’s battleground districts. That being said, the Senate race here is still only “lean” Democrats in our analysis, meaning that the Senate race remains legitimately competitive and if present trends continue, then Joseph Lagana’s seat could very easily slip away from the majority party on Election Night…
Current Assembly Ratings:
Current Senate Ratings:
