Our second round of 2023 legislative district ratings is out, Save Jerseyans. And as I told you during our first round of ratings in late August, let me say once again before you send yours truly the anticipated bombardment of text messages, emails and phone calls, these ratings are in no way intended to be final predictions.
These ratings reflect how the Save Jersey team and our sources see these races TODAY.
Tomorrow? Ad buys are being placed, ground games are playing out, global/national events continue to happen capable of impacting the electoral environment, and “October surprises” are always lurking around the next corner…
Here’s what’s changed since our Labor Day offering:
Senate Rankings Changes:
LD1: Likely GOP > Safe GOP
LD2: Lean GOP > Likely GOP
LD8: Lean GOP > Likely GOP
______________________________________
Assembly Rankings Changes:
LD1: Likely GOP > Safe GOP
LD2: Lean GOP > Likely GOP
LD8: Lean GOP > Likely GOP
LD14: Likely DEM > Leans DEM
LD16: Lean DEM > Swing
LD30: Safe GOP > Likely GOP
LD36: Likely DEM > Safe DEM
LD38: Lean DEM > Swing
A note on the big change in our presentation:
Back in August, each district received a rating and we didn’t break out Assembly/Senate seats. It was early; it also bears repeating that “split districts” remain the exception, not the rule. But this time we HAVE separated things out by Senate and Assembly. These races are nuanced and my observations suggest that while flipping the Senate is looks more challenging by the day, flipping control of the Assembly is very much still a possibility, albeit a long-shot. Assembly Leader John DiMaio hinted as much just this week.
Either way, the GOP is well positioned to pick up some seats and, as indicated above, the hot Assembly races appear less difficult for Republicans at the moment than some of the swing-y Senate contests.
Three Senate races changed rankings since last month, and all lurched further to the right.
Meanwhile, EIGHT Assembly races changed rankings, with all but two improving in the GOP’s favor.
The math remains the same. Republicans need 20 seats in the Senate for split control and 21 for outright control. They currently hold 15 and therefore need to flip 5-6. One is a guaranteed flip since LD12 turncoat and current Democrat Sam Thompson is not running for re-election:
SENATE
In the Assembly, it’s 40 seats for split control and 41 for outright control. The GOP currently holds 34, which means they need to flip 6-7 seats:
ASSEMBLY
Senate GOP Roadmap: Win every Strong, Likely & Lean GOP seat and they’re at 16. Republicans would then need to win the two swing seats AND 2-3 of the 5 Lean/Likely Democrat seats. Hence, why the task of flipping the Senate in 2023 is brutal. A handful of Senate Democrat incumbents have brands (and war chests) which put them out in front of their running mates.
Assembly GOP Roadmap: Win all the seats in the Safe/Likely/Lean GOP categories as well as the swing seats. There’s your “co-majority (40 seats).” Then go out and win just one more single seat from someplace else for an outright and… you’ve got a 41-seat majority. Arguably the brightest spot right now on the reach list? That open LD14 Assembly seat. Unfortunately for Republicans, a candidate recruitment flub in LD36 and a late entry on the Democrat side in usually safe LD30 are complicating the GOP’s otherwise promising prospects.
All in all, we’re seeing positive movement for the GOP in every area of the state. Biden’s numbers are as low as they’ve been at any point since the Summer of 2022. The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee just started panic-spending in LDs 11, 16 and 38. The parental backlash against insane woke mandates continues to grow, and then there’s the Menendez’s indictment, continued inflation, offshore wind and overseas conflagrations variable to mix into the pot. Republicans haven’t had an issue matrix working for them quite this consistently since at least 2009/2010.
A favorable climate doesn’t translate to automatic wins, and the Democrats have been making it rain money in the swing districts. Their combined total spend across multiple competitive districts is already WELL into 7-figure territory in each district. Money is certainly not everything but it’s still worth a hell of a lot. This is also a blue state by registration notwithstanding recent gains, and it remains to see if the Dobbs decision permanently motivated and realigned some voters or whether their anger was restricted to a single cycle (or maybe federal/statewide races).
We’ll be back daily with district-level updates just like last time around. Stay tuned and yes, go vote like your ass is on fire…
