Election 2021 ended in a relatively and painfully narrow 3-point loss for Jack Ciattarelli.
If just 12% of the Republicans who decided to stay home had voted? Phil Murphy wouldn’t be governor today. He’d probably be sitting on the board of Orsted explaining to angry shareholders why their stock is circling the drain.
Not 50%. Not 25%. TWELVE percent, Save Jerseyans.
44% of registered New Jersey Republicans didn’t vote at all in 2021.
I’ve watched Election 2023’s early voting activity closely as you might expect. While Republicans have made productive strides in nearly every legislative district in terms of increasing the raw number of Republicans who are voting early (either in person or by mail), Democrats have also increased their pre-Election Day turnout. In most competitive districts, the raw deficit between Democrats who have already voted and Republicans who’ve already cast ballots is… about where we were in 2021.
Do you see the problem?
“But Matt! We won legislative seats in 2021!”
Not so fast. We’re expecting lower Election Day turnout on November 7th than we saw in Election 2021 for Murphy vs. Ciattarelli. Even if Republicans’ raw deficits are the same, it’s a tougher hole from which to escape in a lower turnout cycle.
“But Matt! It’s not secure. Democrats cheat.”
Will you sitting home and NOT casting a ballot make our system any MORE secure? Voting early isn’t any less or more secure than voting on Election Day, and while we do know ballot harvesting is real, VBMs can at least be tracked by the voter casting one. Ultimately, if we want to improve the system, there’s no way around winning elections as a prerequisite.
Republicans need to stop being stubborn, quit bitching, and vote early.
Return the damn ballot to a designated box (click here) or go vote in person this weekend (click here). Do it now. I get it… we all long for a day when voting actually involved some kind of effort; maintaining a republic isn’t easy, and showing up on a cold November day and standing in line for 20 minutes to maintain this republic is a small investment given the return. But it is what it is. Early voting isn’t going away, and Republicans need to bank at least some of those lost votes (see above) in order to win competitive races.
If parental rights, offshore wind, inflation, taxes, and all of the other big issues don’t really matter to you? Then go ahead and take the risk that traffic, a sick kid, a delay at work or some other unforseen event won’t intervene and hang you up on Tuesday.
If they do matter? Get off your ass and play to win. This is our best chance in a generation to win one (or both) houses of the state legislature. It may be another 20 years before this opportunity arises again. Vote like it.
