It’s all about second place right now in blizzard-battered Iowa, Save Jerseyans, assuming the runner-up slot matters in a Trumpian era?
2024’s presumptive GOP nominee may be about to make history.
The final NBC/Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll before Monday’s caucuses shows Donald Trump at a commanding 48% with Nikki Haley in a distant second place at 20%; Ron DeSantis is sucking wind at 16% while Vivek Ramaswamy registers at an uninspiring 8%:
Trump’s share (48%) breaks George W. Bush’s record in 2000 of 43% for the highest support level in any final pre-GOP caucus DMR poll. His lead of 28 points also breaks Bush’s record of 23.
— Steve Kornacki (@SteveKornacki) January 14, 2024
Ahead of the release of tonight's IA poll, here are the final Des Moines Register polls from previous GOP caucuses & the final caucus results: pic.twitter.com/VQMVN3Vixg
— Steve Kornacki (@SteveKornacki) January 13, 2024
So it’s really a tale of three caucuses right now:
- Will the Donald fall short of expectations? Or achieve a seismic win – as forecast – and establish a tone of inevitability heading into New Hampshire and beyond?
- Will Haley’s second place finish – if that’s what she achieves – provide her with any additional juice down the homestretch of the New Hampshire primary? The anti-Trump camp appears to be coalescing around her, so it’s not hard to see this race transforming into a two-person contest (albeit with Haley as the decided underdog) after Iowa.
- Can DeSantis upset Haley to stay alive? The Florida governor bet heavily on the Hawkeye State to offset an anticipated poor performance in the Granite State. It’s hard to imagine where his campaign goes following third place finishes in the first two states to weigh in on 2024. Something to remember: NO eventual Republican presidential nominee in contemporary history failed to win at least one of either New Hampshire or Iowa.
