Are county lines constitutional? Do they confer an unfair advantage on party bosses? Or do they respect a political party’s freedom of association?
These questions are dominating the federal litigation which will (shortly) determine the fate of New Jersey’s primary county line system, Save Jerseyans, which – along with a ban on self-serve gas and referring to the beach as “the Shore” – stand among the Garden State’s unique and peculiar institutions.
I’ll admit: the fact that New Jersey’s long-standing, foundational county line system may be brought crashing down by an autocratic politician (Phil Murphy) trying to force Democrats to give his wife (Tammy) a job is kind of fun. And it doesn’t get any more Jersey than that…
As I write this, there’s a bipartisan legislative effort underway to preempt a potentially historic court ruling. Meanwhile, few seem to be discussing – at least out loud, and in polite company – what’s next assuming a federal judge grants Andy Kim’s request for injunctive relief. For starters: what will ballots look like in a post-line world? Vertically organized but by office instead of a bracketed team? New Jersey’s ballots are at present, for all of their alleged faults, arguably among the nation’s LEAST confusing.
Some other possibilities to consider:
1. Super/Dark Money PACs could play an even larger role in the New Jersey electoral process. At the moment? New Jersey partisan politics is organized along the lines of the fictional kingdom of Westeros from HBO’s Game of Thrones series (the early seasons). There isn’t a consistently strong central authority; power is divided among petty kingdoms (e.g. the Camden Machine, Middlesex, the Hudson city-states). Without their most powerful tool, the line? Utilized to punish disloyal actors and rebel factions? You can expect shadowy surrogates of politically powerful people to lean heavier than they already are into dark money PACs, a creature of the post-Citizens United world. It may appear on the surface as if the free market has come to Westeros, but well-heeled special interests like the NJEA replacing county committees may also carry unintended consequences.
2. The N.J. Democrat Party is likely to shift (way) further to the Left. In the short term? This is really, really bad for the taxpayers of New Jersey. Democrats have a legislative map that gives them an almost guaranteed permanent majority under the Dome, and that majority is likely to get crazier if machine Democrats (traditionally more married to self-preservation than ideology) are replaced by pro-Palestinian BLM socialists. Trenton is already a horror show, but it can and likely would get immediately nuttier without lines. But in the long run? They MIGHT be easier to defeat if New Jersey Republicans ever get their collective shit together…
3. Blue/purple county liberal Republicans might go extinct. There are plenty of examples around the state of Republican county establishments which are significantly less MAGA or conservative (or both) than the average GOP voter. I’d argue that the gulf which has opened up between the base and the establishment has never been wider in modern times. Without a line to hid behind, “moderate” Republicans could quickly find themselves out of a public job. Some red county Republicans could be in trouble, too, if they’re perceived as being less-than-true to the base’s values and priorities.
That’s obviously a partial list, folks. I see potential “pros.” I’m also anticipating potentially scary cons.
What will truly happen if the line system is blown up? No one can say for sure, but I do think I can state the following with certainty:
The pro- and anti- line camps are both telling you only part of the story.
