Rockefeller Republican Clifford Case served four terms in the U.S. Senate, having been re-elected in 1960, 1966 and 1972 by the people of New Jersey. But he lost a post-Watergate primary to conservative Jeff Bell, and Bell went on to lose to Democrat Bill Bradley in November.
Thus began one of the longest droughts in U.S. federal politics. New Jersey hasn’t elected a Republican to the U.S. Senate in 52 years. Two other Republicans – Nicholas Brady (April 12, 1982 –December 27, 1982) and Jeff Chiesa (June 6, 2013 – October 30, 2013) served brief stints as functional placeholders courtesy of GOP governors but were never elected.
Could the streak end in 2024?
I wouldn’t be the farm on it, Save Jerseyans, but if you want to look at this meteorologically, a series of variable and conditions are coming together which could, under the right circumstances, create an electoral super storm capable of producting a Republican senator from the Garden State. Emerson’s brand new poll (out Tuesday) illustrates what’s happening.
According to the pollsters at Emerson, Menendez running as an independent (which he’s threatened to do) in November presently attracts support from 9% of registered voters. The Democrat (presumptively Andy Kim) would fetch 49% while the Republican nominee (still undecided) earns 42%; that’s a far closer match up than the double-digit losses Republicans have been accustomed to weathering in recent cycles. The 8%+ range is probably where Menendez needs to be to play spoiler, get revenge on his own party for abandoning him post-indictment and, following the Trump model, maybe raise some cash to help offset crushing legal bills.
“Hispanic and Black voters in New Jersey are more supportive of Menendez as an independent candidate, 17% support the senator rather than a hypothetical Democratic or Republican candidate, compared to 6% of white voters,” explained Spencer Kimball, the executive director of Emerson College Polling. “Additionally, 24% of voters under 30 support Menendez on a three-way ballot.”
Now what if RFK Jr. who’s presently pulling a high single digit/low double digit nationally recruits a U.S. Senate candidate for his New Jersey slate?
You can see where this is going. The odds are still very much stacked against Republicans, but there’s a path… albeit a narrow one… for something historic to happen.
Click here to check out the full polling report.
The survey was conducted between March 26th and 29th and consisted of 1,000 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points.
