In recent years, the healthcare industry has focused on non-personal factors that affect the health of the individuals within the populations it serves. Referred to as the Social Determinants of Health (SDOH), these factors can have dramatic effects on physical and mental health. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) defines these conditions as:
“…the conditions in which people are born, grow, work, live, and age and the wider set of forces and systems shaping the conditions of daily life. These forces and systems include economic policies and systems, development agendas, social norms, social policies, racism, climate change, and political systems.”1
Similarly, the “conditions in which people are born, grow, work, live, and age and the wider set of forces and systems shaping the conditions of daily life’ and voting preferences are referred to here as the Social Determinants of Voting (SDOV).
How can Republican political campaigns better understand the SDOV of the likely Republican voters in their districts, increase turnout among individual donors, and win key races both in the primary and general elections?
Bradley Honan and Elisabeth Zeche explain in a recent Campaigns and Elections article that “Americans are increasingly self-segregating themselves by cultural, social, and political beliefs in terms of where they are choosing to live….and that “Americans are increasingly sorting themselves block-by-block and street-by-street by their political beliefs, ideology, and indeed their political identity.”2 In a literature review by Kuilachai, Lerdtormornsakul, and Homyamyen, the authors explore the factors influencing voting decisions.3 Their review divided the factors in three broad categories: Individual-Level Factors, Socio-Cultural Factors, and Political Factors.4 This brief will consider examples from the individual-level factors and from the socio-cultural factors.
Regarding individual-level factors, the authors discovered in the review that “individuals with higher levels of extraversion tend to vote for parties or candidates that emphasize charisma and assertiveness….and that “Extraverts are more likely to be attracted to leaders who are energetic and outgoing.”5 Regarding socio-cultural factors, their review uncovered that “group identity and socialization processes within social networks can shape individuals’ political choices…and that “Families, communities, and peer groups can transmit political values and beliefs that influence voting decisions”6
At this point, it’s worth taking up the subject of the 2024 election cycle and how Republicans can increase turnout among donors with respect to a potential shift in who votes for Republican candidates.
On March 30, 2021, Representative Jim Banks (R-Indiana) sent a memo to then House Speaker Kevin McCarthy titled; “URGENT: Cementing GOP as the Working-Class Party” now known as the “Jim Banks Memo.”7 In the memo, Representative Banks made the following salient points:
- Donald Trump won the Presidency in 2016 by drawing working-class voters into the GOP.
- Certain occupations overwhelmingly supported President Trump in 2020. Of those who donated to a presidential campaign: 79% of mechanics donated to Trump…60% of small business owners donated to Trump… and 59% of custodians donated to Trump.
- Noting a potential shift in the electorate, the memo also indicated that “73% of bankers donated to Biden while 27% donated to Trump.”8
The memo continues by outlining action items the Republicans in the House of Representatives can undertake to “rebrand” and “reorient” the Republican Party as the “Party of the Working Class:”
- Hug the agenda that differentiated President Trump in 2016 and supplement it with new, relevant ideas.
- Highlight the cultural and economic elitism that animates the Democrat Party.
- GOP Members must bring this message home to their constituents through tangible action items.9
The memo also contains agenda items for the House of Representatives to undertake including Immigration, Trade, and Main Street vs. Wall Street. As of February 20, 2024, 76% of Americans disapprove of President Biden handling of the immigration issue. Regarding Trade, Banks points out that 75% of Republicans and Democrats rank “protecting the jobs of American workers” as their top foreign policy goal among U.S. workers. Regarding Main Street vs. Wall Street, Banks points out that “Republicans opposed draconian coronavirus lockdowns because we knew that small, independent businesses and working Americans would be hurt the most. Democrats supported them because their donors would profit. And that’s exactly what happened.”10
With regard to small-dollar individual and digital donations, Banks makes the following suggestion to Speaker McCarthy:
“You’re right to encourage Members to grow their digital fundraising operations. But our digital fundraising efforts should be paired with the explicit message: ‘I’m asking for a small donation, so I can continue to represent your values, not the values of liberal multinational corporations who are determined to replace conservatives like me.”11
The Banks memo aligns well with the research uncovered in the literature review and is consistent with the SDOV. The focus in the memo on immigration, trade, and main street vs. wall street is consistent with the individual-level and socio-cultural factors that are important to small dollar donors and potential Republican voters. Republican campaigns would do well to integrate these into their voter and donor strategies.
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1 https://www.cdc.gov/about/sdoh/index.html. Accessed February 20, 2024
2 https://campaignsandelections.com/campaigntech/why-targeting-micro-neighborhoods-is-key-to-winning-in-24/. Accessed February 20, 2024.
3 Kulachai,Waiphot, Unisa Lerdtomornsakul, and Patipol Homyamyen. 2023. Factors Influencing Voting Decision: A Comprehensive Literature Review. Social Sciences 12: 469. https://doi.org/10.3390/socsci12090469
4 Ibid.
5 Ibid.
6 Ibid.
7 https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/20534328-banks-working-class-memo. Accessed February 19, 2024.
8Ibid.
9Ibid.
10 Ibid.
11 Ibid.
