Could Donald Trump make history in New Jersey this November?
Aggregated Rasmussen polling data dropped early today shows Donald Trump decisively behind Kamala Harris but running historically strong in the Garden State where no Republican nominee has carried its electoral votes since 1988:
Harris: 52% (+9)
Trump: 43%
Other: 2%
Not sure: 2%
Harris’s 9-point lead is well below Biden’s nearly 16-point margin of victory in 2020 and Hillary Clinton’s 14-point win in 2016. The closest any Republican has ran in New Jersey in the 21st century? 2004, in the aftermath of 9/11 when George W. Bush came within 6.68-points of John Kerry and carried 9 of the state’s 21 counties.
The Rasmussen survey results – reflecting cumulative data from 603 likely voters extending back over the past two months – points to Trump running ahead with Hispanic voters (!), winning nearly 30% of black voters, and narrowly carrying independents by 3-points. Harris’s nearly 80% lead among her fellow Democrats, however, is enough to build a 9-point margin in part owing to the fact that the state has over 900,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans:
There’s been very little polling in New Jersey this cycle, though a March 2024 Emerson poll found Joe Biden struggling with a relatively modest 7-point lead.
Ramussen head pollster Mark Mitchell shared the intriguing results for New Jersey and New York, too, in a Monday video.
Watch below:
