Democrats typically win tough races in the modern age of American politics by building a difficult-to-overcome firewall of early votes. That apparently isn’t happening this year based upon all of the early data from battlegrounds and non-traditional toss-up states alike. Our friend Tim Saler (a Jersey guy) is out with a memo detailing Democrat turnout troubles in all of the major battlegrounds. Turnout in Philly is in the toilet, off the 2020 pace by almost 700,000 Democrat votes in a state Biden only carried by 800,000. But as the NY Post relayed this morning, Save Jerseyans, even states like deep blue New York are seeing a dramatic drop in Democrat participation.
You can add New Jersey to that category.
Woke Zombie – your favorite Garden State number-cruncher on X – analyzed the total early vote data through Sunday (when in-person early voting ended). These figures INCLUDE mail. While ballots in New Jersey only need to be postmarked no later than Election Day, so more are coming, Democrats today find themselves running hundreds of thousands of votes behind their 2020 pace.
Not hundreds. Not thousands. HUNDREDS of thousands.
President Trump has suggested in recent days that New Jersey may be in play. I’m not ready to predict victory here (a 300,000+ edge is still substantial in a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans by about 900,000), but these numbers do suggest the potential for an unusually closer-than-normal battle for the state’s 14 electoral votes this week and obviously suggest that Donald Trump may be building a larger-than-forecasted victory.
We’ll see what happens. Take nothing for granted. VOTE!
But this isn’t spin, just numbers:
Early Voting is now closed in NJ. GOP gave it a good shot, nearly matching DEM turnout, which finished at D+2.2 for IPEV. pic.twitter.com/nfQyZ5q2yF
— Woke Zombie (@AWokeZombie) November 4, 2024
2020 Total EV (All mail in):
1,073,514
1,714,306 (+640,792)
1,239,561— Woke Zombie (@AWokeZombie) November 4, 2024
