This is a biggie, folks…
LD1
Trump +4
Ciattarelli +19
Senate: Likely GOP > Safe GOP
Assembly: Likely GOP > Safe GOP
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We previously rated LD1 as “Likely GOP.”
No longer.
I also wrote that it would take an immediate race-upsetting event or a large infusion of cash to make Senator Mike Testa, Assemblymen Erik Simonsen and Antwan McClellan vulnerable.
Neither one of those things has happened, and time is running out. Arguably it’s run out. This district is reddening, the incumbents have struck the right (literally) notes, a serious Democrat challenger for the Senate race never materialized, and arguably most dispositive of all factors: South Jersey Democrats are too tied up defending LD4 and waging uphill attempts to retake lost territory in 2, 3, and 8. The days of the Norcross Machine being able to wage multi-front wars in every South Jersey district are over, at least for the near future and until something significant changes in the overall regional political environment.
All three LD1 Republicans will be back under the Gold Dome come January. That’s a remarkable feat in historical context considering this seat was held by Democrats, and all three of the aforementioned Republicans were underdogs, this time on the calendar just four short years ago….
Jeff Van Drew’s seat is off the board for 2023.
