By Matt Rooney | The Save Jersey Blog
“The math simply isn’t there.”
That’s what Save Jersey sources in Ocean County are saying about the chances of councilman, dentist, and former rear admiral Mo Hill mounting a successful convention floor challenge to the screening committee-backed candidate to succeed Jon Runyan, Tom MacArthur.
Their logic is compelling regardless of whether it ultimately holds true…
The Hill camp is pegging its hopes on the delegates from Hill’s Toms River base and the community of Brick. Combined, these towns will have close to 30 votes at the convention.
It’s a formidable bloc of votes if they all come in together; it’s been reported last night that both clubs voted to back him in non-binding straw polls. The challenge for Mo Hill lies in the fact that there are somewhere between 50 and 60 votes elsewhere in the county’s CD3 municipalities. With MacArthur rolling up endorsements in places like Lacey and Point Pleasant, Hill would likely need to pick off somewhere in the vicinity of one-to-two-dozen votes elsewhere AND maintain a united bloc in TR and Brick. No small feat given the size of both delegations.
I’m also told a GOP meeting last night in Brick wasn’t encouraging in that latter regard.
According to reliable sources, a former Brick mayor and Mo Hill ally called for a straw poll of the roughly 35 meeting attendees; 11 reportedly voted for Hill while the other attendees declined to participate. That’s simply not going to be enough with little more than one week to go.
Let me preempt the criticism of this post before venturing any further, Save Jerseyans.
I’ve been doing this long enough. This isn’t a “Republican” blog. It’s a conservative blog populated by folks who are almost unanimously Republicans. Some of us are very active. That said, the site doesn’t take positions in primaries. Save Jersey doesn’t own a horse in this race. As always, I’m calling it like I see it based on our small army of sources, informants, friends and allies residing at every exit of the G.S. Parkway. I’ve been wrong before, but not as a matter of habit.
Honestly? From a strictly “what’s good for business” standpoint,” a Lonegan or Hill stunner on March 19th would be great for blog traffic! A Hill victory in particular would set up a 3-way fight right through until Primary Day in June.
The media is talking it up. I’m just telling you it doesn’t look like the numbers are heading that way as of now. I promise to let you know if that changes any time soon…
He’s a dentist?? Really?? From the way his supporters were talking him up I thought he was the reincarnation of Admiral Halsey. So what did he command while he was in the Navy, a squadron of dental technicians?
Don’t underestimate Lonegan’s existing support network – while few in number (VERY few), they far outnumber those banging on doors for MacArthur. MacArthur hasn’t dealt with Koch Brothers money, before. SOMEBODY paid for that house in Lavallette. Don’t get me wrong – I don’t believe either one is ready for Congress. The best news so far this year for the R’s is that Aimee Norcross, er, Belgarde is running essentially unopposed. Bob Shapiro is still toying with a “D” run, and Kleinhendler is in it – but the Norcross Puppet will get the nod.
I thought Wolfe would raise his head, but the Party Handcuffs and phoning in the last 20 years makes him too weak a proposition. Birdsall is also a taint he would have to overcome – and Belgarde is too new, so she can capitalize on that. (Presuming it would occur to her – it certainly won’t to her bosses, who are lousy with past Birdsall dollars).
It’s a horse race. Don’t let the slanted POLITICKER poll fool you. Who did they poll, Repubican Primary Voters from 2013 in the Special Senate Election? That would be my guess. The polling concern appears to be a small office in East Brunswick, or a similarly named company in Wisconson. Wonder what a real poll would say about either one. I don’t think MacArthur would do better, but Hill might…IN OCEAN.
Looking forward to being the independent conservative in November. These two guys are going to tear each other to pieces…and that won’t end if Lonegan is the loser. He’s not going away.
That’s MY job.
MacArthur – NO Vet NO Vote
People, Support Veterans for Congress they have already given a lot more to this country than any hack politician ever has. If they’re so big on America why didn’t they have the balls to serve in the military ? U.S.M.C. 1961-1965