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Cook Concurs with Sabato On CD3

By Matt Rooney | The Save Jersey Blog

South Jersey's CD3

South Jersey’s CD3

A second leading national congressional race analyst in 24 hours sees reason for CD3 (PVI R+1) GOP optimism in the wake of Tuesday’s primary, Save Jerseyans….

From The Cook Report‘s David Wasserman.

“NJ-03: OPEN (Runyan) (R) – South central: Burlington, Toms River
Lean Republican. With former GOP Senate nominee Steve Lonegan no longer in the picture, Republicans can breathe slightly easier in this open seat. After loaning his campaign $2 million, GOP former Randolph Mayor Tom MacArthur easily beat the Tea Party-backed Lonegan, 60 percent to 40 percent, for the right to face Democratic Burlington County Freeholder Aimee Belgard in the fall. MacArthur’s money and the tilt of both the district (R+1) and the national environment make him the slight favorite in November.”

Election Projection also adjusted its map accordingly.

At the moment, Cook places 232 House seats in the GOP column (including leaners) for Election 2014; the Republican Party presently has 233 seats in the popular chamber which, putting things into perspective, is a pretty darn good place to start. Another 27 seats are either toss-ups or lean/weak Democrat. That tells me Democrats may not have a financial incentive (or ability) to fight to flip CD3 by the fall if current trends persist and defenses pile up. TBD…

 

8 comments on “Cook Concurs with Sabato On CD3

  1. My Name is Jonas says:

    wait until the DCCC buy is rescinded, that is the next shoe to drop. Cue Rufus aka rfc, I’m sure he will find a way to bitch about this.

  2. Phoenix234 says:

    Wait and see…
    With Jeff Bell fighting for the Gold Standard instead of against Booker, watch Booker spend his time and money helping build political capital across the country and certainly here in NJ.

    MacArthur might not have wanted to fight Cory Booker for the Senate seat, but he’ll now be fighting Booker for CD-3 as Senator McTweet will undoubtedly do his best to help Belgard.

    • My Name is Jonas says:

      Nothing to worry about. Since Steve Lonegan won CD3 against Booker, and then MacArthur won against Lonegan, MacArthur should have no problem outperforming Booker in the district #LoneganLogic

  3. Gepetto says:

    Same argument as with Eck’s tally last year…how many MacArthur votes were for “Oh, my GOD! NOT LONEGAN!”

    So much support for this guy that the two off-column dems got over 10% of his tally spending less than 1000 dollars each.

    If you’re Republican or Democrat before you’re American, well…this is what you get for representation.

  4. Rufus O. says:

    When we nominated milquetoast RINO Tom MacArthur as our candidate, we kissed the money that could have come rolling in from FreedomWorks & Tea Party Express goodbye. They have no interest in supporting someone who they know is going to fall in line with Boehner & Cantor and support bailouts, hikes in the debt ceiling, and assaults on our personal freedom. I’d really like MacArthur’s chances if he were running as a Democrat, because there are more national groups that would campaign on his befalf and because his platform is much more in line with what they stand for. But even with all his money, he’s going to have a very tough time since his stances and campaign tactics have already alienated so many people. Nice job, 3rd District GOP voters … you really put this election into play for the Democrats.

    • My Name is Jonas says:

      “we kissed the money that could have come rolling in from FreedomWorks & Tea Party Express goodbye”

      This is easily the funniest thing you have said to date, my goodness you are a hoot.

  5. fjl says:

    Don’t worry, Rufus – it’s a horse race, and Ms. Belgard ain’t in it.

  6. […] are definitely worse tactical choices for a Democrat running in New Jersey’s lean-GOP Third Congressional District this cycle, Save […]

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