Proving that history is bound to repeat itself, the Congressional Redistricting Commission has selected John Farmer, the Dean of Rutgers School of Law in Newark, to be the tie-breaking “independent” member of the commission. While Farmer was attorney general under Governor Whitman, he is not registered with any political party.
As I am sure you recall, New Jersey is going to be losing a seat in the House this year, and Mr. Farmer is likely going to be the man who decides which seat disappears. Unlike reapportionment of the state legislature, which could have resulted in a compromise map that made the state more competitive as a whole, this effort can only end in utter disappointment for one party. However, if Farmer pays attention to reality then there is only one way this can end.
New Jersey has not only been losing residents due to high taxes, but there has also been an internal migration from the north to the south. From the north that is mostly dominated by democrats, to the south where, at least congressionally (with the exception of NJ-1), has gone red since Jon Runyan took back NJ-3 in 2010.
With the Republicans taking higher vote totals in the last two congressional elections and also winning the Governor’s office statewide in 2009, there is no real argument that this state should not become an even 6-6 split between the parties. The Democrats will attempt to say that they hold a voter registration advantage and therefore should maintain an edge. However, everyone knows that unaffiliated voters outnumber both D’s and R’s in our state, and lately it seems that those voters have been swinging to the right.
Here we go again.
