A new Public Policy Polling (PPP) survey out today shows Rick Santorum with a national lead for the first time – 38% for Rick to Mitt’s 23% (ppp pdf).
PPP is a partisan Democrat outfit, Save Jerseyans, so take this dramatic polling reversal with a grain of salt (although they did predict a Christie victory when some indicators were completely off).
Their latest findings do, however, reflect undeniable momentum in the native Pennsylvanian’s direction…
“Likability” is key to PPP’s analysis:
Part of the reason for Santorum’s surge is his own high level of popularity. 64% of voters see him favorably to only 22% with a negative one. But the other, and maybe more important, reason is that Republicans are significantly souring on both Romney and Gingrich.
Romney’s favorability is barely above water at 44/43, representing a 23 point net decline from our December national poll when he was +24 (55/31). Gingrich has fallen even further. A 44% plurality of GOP voters now hold a negative opinion of him to only 42% with a positive one. That’s a 34 point drop from 2 months ago when he was at +32 (60/28).
But Santorum’s likability is likely to dip, too, once his opponents (in the field and in the media) begin to unload on the newly-minted top tier contender.
I believe Santorum’s ascent is more a matter of superior messaging.
When Newt Gingrich actually HAS a message, it’s been disgustingly populist in tone. Anti-rich, anti-establishment, pro-big ideas. The problem with this Palinista message? It’s completely incompatible with conservatism and capitalism. Americans traditionally WANT to be rich! Most Republicans are too intelligent to fall for these base tactics. They have no place in our party.
Mitt Romney, for his part, has slumped into a “I’m a better manager than the incompetent Obama” themed campaign. Is he wrong? Absolutely not! But Santorum’s message is better because it’s more accurate. He’s arguing that Obama isn’t dumb; the President is an arrogant, condescending elitist who thinks he knows how to run your life, school, family, CHURCH, and community better than you!
Will superior messaging alone lead to a Santorum upset?
Unlikely. He’s still far behind in delegates and funds despite these latest successes. Upcoming contests in delegate-rich states with smaller evangelical populations will present tougher challenges for Santorum. And let’s face it: he’s not exactly the more charismatic candidate on the stump!
But he’s got a much better chance of pulling it off than Newt Gingrich for the reasons set forth above, and Mitt Romney’s campaign needs to learn the lessons of Santorum’s assent quickly to stave off an even greater disaster for their candidate than he suffered in Colorado.
Santorum-Rubio 2012!
https://savejersey.com/2012/02/the-future-is-spell…