If you chose to internalize the nightly news, Save Jerseyans, you’d be pretty “bearish” on Mitt Romney’s campaign.
No one likes him according to the pundits! Women, hispanics, female hispanics, martians, Marianists, female hispanic martian Marianists. Everyone! We’re already hearing talking heads (on both sides of the aisle) wonder aloud if Mitt can, in fact, triumph against President Obama.
In April? More than six months out?
It’s waaaay to early for that kind of talk, folks; moreover, the latest polling predicts an extremely close general election contest. Consider how we’ve only had three major polls in April and all three show we’re likely to experience a barn-burner (via RCP average):
| FOX News | 4/9 – 4/11 | 910 RV | 44 | 46 | Romney +2 |
| Rasmussen Tracking | 4/9 – 4/11 | 1500 LV | 45 | 45 | Tie |
| ABC News/Wash Post | 4/5 – 4/8 | RV | 51 | 44 | Obama +7 |
Note that the only LIKELY voter poll since early March is the above referenced Rasmussen survey showing a dead heat. That March Bloomberg survey also found a dead heat. And as for the ABC News poll cited above? A tad suspect; for example, roughly 12% of the electorate was African American in the 2008 Election but the ABC News sample used this April was more than 18% African American (a demographic voting group which President Obama carried by a nearly unanimous margin of 95% to 4% last time).
Recent history is also somewhat instructive and provides a real source of hope for Romney supporters (and everyone who wants/needs a new president in January 2013). In mid-April 2004, President G.W. Bush enjoyed a strong 52% job approval rating in the historically consistent Gallup survey; only 45% disapproved.
Obama’s latest Gallup numbers? 48% approve and 44% disapprove.
President Bush went on to win reelection by just 2.4%.
President Obama sure wishes he was above 50% like President Bush was at this same point in the race, folks. That 4-point spread between Bush’s April ’04 and Obama’s numbers is highly significant for the amount of uncertainty it injects into his campaign. It tells us that, as of right now, O is ANYTHING but “safe” because the electorate isn’t sure yet whether he deserves a second go-around.
Mitt Romney can get the job done if he runs a Bush-quality campaign, Save Jerseyans. Naysayers be damned!
Obama dipped below 50 percent quicker than any other U.S. president –
http://www.gallup.com/poll/122513/presidential-ap…
Whatever gets you through the night.
Mitt Rom… zzzzzz.
Maybe Christie will run in 2016 after Obama's second term.
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