Shelley Adler, a Democrat who lives in the NJ-1 but decided to run for Congress in NJ-3, has released her first quarter of fundraising numbers, and according to a report on PolitickerNJ, is bragging about it.
Adler raised $308,765 over the last three months and entered April with $289,957 cash on hand. The reports have not officially been released yet by the FEC, but I will be very interested to see how much of her contributions flowed through the Camden County Democrat Machine into her account, especially considering that Camden County is no longer in the district, just like Shelley.
While raising $300,000 is no small feat, it has to all be taken in context. The Runyan campaign has more than double the cash on hand that Adler does; $735,220 at the end of the first quarter. Even if Adler manages to raise the same amount of cash each quarter from now until October first, that still only puts her at a little over $900,000 one month from election day in one of the most expensive media markets in the United States. Runyan will have far more cash heading into the fall than Adler just based on his head start alone, and his fundraising will certainly pick up in the summer.
For some perspective…
Shelley’s late husband, former Congressman John Adler, had to spend over $3 million (more than he actually raised) in 2008 to defeat a non-incumbent Republican who only spent roughly $1.2 million. 2008 was a horrible Republican year, and even with more than a two-to-one cash advantage, John Adler only won by 3 percentage points. Do I even have to mention that 2008 is not 2012 by any estimation?
The other matter of concern should be the map. NJ-3 is leaning more Republican than ever. When John Adler took the seat in 2008, the district included Cherry Hill. Cherry Hill and Shelley have a lot in common. They both like Obama (Cherry Hill went 61 percent for Obama in 2008), and neither of them live in the 3rd district.
By contrast, Shelley Adler and the new NJ-3 have little in common. For instance, the new 3rd swapped Cherry Hill for Brick Township. Brick went 67 percent for Governor Christie.
So let’s put this all together:
- Adler does not live in the district
- The district shed a strong Democrat town for an even stronger Republican one of similar size
- Adler raised roughly $300,000 this quarter and is super happy about it
- If Adler can match that every quarter she will not even come close to her husband’s fundraising levels
- 2008 is not even comparable to 2012 politically
Doesn’t really sound like too much to brag about now does it? I think a better use of that $300,000 would be for Shelley to buy a house in NJ-3. That kind of money could fetch a nice place in Burlington or Ocean County and bring a whole new level of legitimacy to her campaign.
She has stated she will only move into the district if she were to be elected, just goes to show how little he actually cares about NJ 3