These days I feel like Bob Menendez might wish that he was “someone else.” According to the latest poll by Fairleigh Dickinson/Public Mind, being “someone else” would probably give him a better shot at reelection.
The poll found that Senator Menendez would actually lose to an unnamed candidate 37 to 30 percent. The biggest reason for this strange outcome? Well, when Democrats are asked whether they support Hudson Bob or Joe Kyrillos, his GOP opponent, 74 percent choose Menendez. This is unsurprising. However, when Kyrillos is removed and replaced by an unnamed candidate, Democrat support drops to 50 percent for Menendez.
Nothing spells trouble for an incumbent like half of your own base supporting someone else…
So does this equate to a victory by Kyrillos? Not yet. When put head to head Menendez still wins 42 to 33 percent. However, only 32 percent of people even polled claimed to have heard of Joe Kyrillos at this point. That will of course chance as we get closer to the election. Kyrillos has the opportunity to define himself statewide in his voter outreach, while Menendez is quite well defined and clearly even unsupported by his own party by a simple majority.
The problem for Menendez is not going to be a mass exodus of Democrats to Senator Kyrillos. Although that would be nice, and I am sure that some Democrats will break that way, it wont be enough to truly tip the scales. Instead, the problem is one of enthusiasm. Many voters in Presidential years are those who only vote in Presidential years. They walk in, pull the lever for President, and walk out. If this poll is any indication, Bob Menendez is not turning anyone out for him, even among Democrats. It is not a good place to be as an incumbent consistently polling below 50 percent.
As more and more people begin to figure out who Joe Kyrillos is, expect these polls to tighten. Democrats do not appear to care enough to come to Hudson Bob’s rescue.
The Kyrillos campaign released this statement on the poll,
There is a reason Bob Menendez is doing so poorly — his record: Unemployment has nearly doubled since he was elected, gas prices have doubled and our nation’s debt has skyrocketed. When voters learn about how Joe Kyrillos is working with Governor Chris Christie and like-minded reformers to turn around New Jersey’s economy, they will support Joe’s plan to do the same thing in Washington. Even people in his own party realize they simply cannot afford 6 more years of Bob Menendez.
I want to know more about Joe Kyrillos. Where can I get more information?
you can go to JoeKyrillos.com or you can keep checking back here. We will be covering this races extensively.