Correction time, Save Jerseyans.
Turns out that wasn’t 100% accurate. A diligent Save Jerseyan (with a much better memory than yours truly) reminded me via email of something I wrote almost six months ago.
On December 30, 2011, I posted “12 Predictions for 2012” from a Midwest hotel room with a drink in hand.
Check out #5 and marvel:
That’s right… I predicted a large-scale Bill Pascrell victory in December. Now everyone is shocked that Steve Rothman went down with only 39% of the vote. Why?
Sure, Rothman got the better of redistricting, at least superficially. But there were other overarching factors at play in this race, all of which provided clues pointing to a Pascrell romp. Consider how much healthier the Passaic Democrat organization is at present than its sickly Bergen County counterpart in the post-Ferriero era. Surely this played a role in Tuesday’s surprisingly lopsided turnout that heavily favored Passaic heavyweight Pascrell over his Bergen opponent.
And what about the large contrast between how these two men managed their respective strongholds? Pascrell is a notoriously populist campaigner who forges personal relationships with locals, doesn’t miss a low-dollar fundraiser and does whatever he can to support their campaigns. Rothman reportedly operated at 30,000 feet. Personal relationships – or a lack thereof – will always make a difference in low turnout contests!
Taken together with the prevailing view in Democrat circles that Rothman was an unredeemable coward for turning on Rothman instead of challenging conservative stalwart Scott Garrett (R, NJ-5), it’s not all too surprising to see Pascrell finish large and in charge riding on a backlash wave.
So where’s my medal, Save Jerseyans? I called it, representing by the way about the only thing I share in common with Slick Willy other than, of course, a general disdain for Barack Obama.