No Business Wants to Un-Employ People

Nobody wins when someone has to be “un-employed.”

This happens when a business that is not doing well, a condition which could be caused by a host of factors. In addition to the business and stock holders suffering, the employee has to suffer the financial loss, emotional impact and even the embarrassment of trying to explain to his or her family or friends.

The cause of declining business is measured in revenue loss and/or expense increases. These variables can be tied to the overall economic health of an area, state and our country.

There are many metrics that measure the economic health of the county like gross domestic product, national debt, employable, total employees S&P Index, consumer price Index, surplus/deficit, consumption expenditures and also the trade weighted exchange index. Basically, there are plenty of metrics that have an effect on the health of a business which haven’t been managed appropriately by our president.

Does the everyday joe really care about all these measurements? I don’t think so, but what you and I care about is whether we and our friends and family are employed or unemployed.

Presidential elections interestingly can be tied to this simple metric, which makes perfect sense because when most of us pull the lever on election day, we are going to either say I am happy because I am employed and can feed my family or we are going to say I am not employed or I know many friends and family who are not employed. We then say we need a change.

The magic number is a 6% unemployment rate. Reagan won a second term when the rate was at 6%, down from a high of 11% during his first term. Thanks to Carter. George H.W. didn’t win a second term, the rate was around 7%. Clinton won a second term when the rate was 5.5%. George W. Bush won a second term when the rate was 5.5%.

Today the rate is 8%, far from 6% which means that there are enough unsatisfied citizens that they will want a change come Election Day. Obama has gotten sidetracked on issues not central the economic condition of our Country. He hasn’t focused on the high level metrics that effect businesses and their ability to employ versus un-employ.

A simple prediction: Obama will lose in November because we need to get our country back to work and an unemployment rate below 6%.