N.J. Senate GOP Leadership Sees Stars Aligning for Possible Control Turnover in November
Nate Silver thinks the U.S. Senate might tip back to the GOP in 2014 if current trends persist; some leading New Jersey Republicans are optimistic that the state senate might go red first in 2013.
A memorandum obtained by Save Jersey and outlining the case for Republicans’ prospects was sent by Senator Minority Leader Tom Kean, Jr. to the members of his caucus earlier this week.
In the memo, Kean expresses his belief that GOP-friendly turnout models will overcome a bad draw during the 2011 legislative redistricting process and add inches to Governor Christie’s much-debated coattails:
Its true this map was designed by Democrats for Democrats, however their partisan advantages are most evident in the lowest turnout elections. With 26% statewide turnout in 2011, the Democrat’s map worked to pack slightly more Democrat partisan voters than Republicans partisan voters in swing districts.
Two years ago, that was only enough to hold Republican candidates in five districts to between 44-47%. Enough seats right there to make a majority if we convert 6 out of every 100 voters.
In the Kean Wave of 1985, Assembly Republican candidates swept victory in six districts they received between 34-45% of the vote in the same districts just two years prior to take the Majority.
This year Republican challengers can appeal to a whole new audience of New Jerseyans, as it’s the first time the State Senate has faced a Gubernatorial Election size turnout in 12 years. Based on past voting trends with a statewide election at the top of our ballot, those competitive seats will see over 30% new voter turnout, with overwhelming majorities currently supporting Governor Christie’s reelection.
The memo goes on to cite other factors, including overtly-partisan power plays by legislative Democrats, which haven’t played well in the media, as well as gang-buster fundraising (the Senate Republican Majority out-raised its Senate Democrat equivalent by a 3-to-1 margin) as grounds for optimism heading towards November.
Most sources you speak with will list 1, 2, 3, 14, 18, and 38 as top tier Republican opportunities.