Updated 12:53 p.m.
Here’s our Election Eve public polling average:
Rutgers-Eagleton (NEW) – Christie +36
Monmouth University (NEW) – Christie +20
Quinnipiac University (NEW) – Christie +28
Kean University – Christie +18
Quinnipiac University – Christie +33
Stockton University – Christie +24
Rutgers-Eagleton – Christie +26
Monmouth University – Christie +24
Rasmussen Reports – Christie +21
Fairleigh Dickinson – Christie +19
Quinnipiac’s results remain mostly unchanged while Rutgers Eagleton reports a 10-point jump since their last survey. It’s a stark reminder of how unpredictable the Christie landslide really is even at this late hour, Save Jerseyans.
For what it’s worth, Patrick Murray’s Monmouth Poll was the special senate election’s most accurate public survey. The margin has tightened a bit since Monmouth’s last poll but the Governor still enjoys a 20-point lead, a result which insiders tell Save Jersey is actually at the upper-range of Christie camp projections (they’re bracing for a double-digit win int he 12-15% range)…
“Little has changed over the course of the fall campaign,” notes the Monmouth report. “Christie claims the support of 92% of Republicans, 61% of independents, and 23% of Democrats. A key issue in the final margin of victory will be turnout coming on the heels of a special election for U.S. Senate just three weeks ago. Republican-leaning voters appear to be more likely to come out for this election than they were on October 16. Among likely voters who reported voting in the special U.S. Senate election, Christie holds a 54% to 39% lead over Buono. Among those who waited until this week’s election to cast their fall ballots, though, Christie’s lead is even larger at 64% to 32%.”
That last tidbit should give you all the motivation you need to turn folks out in your community for the legislative races tomorrow, Save Jerseyans.
Among other findings in the Monmouth Poll, the Governor has a small lead among Hispanics (48% to 42%), women (52%), and he’s up big in the key Jersey Shore counties where he got his margin of victory in 2009 (65% to 28%). However, there is some indication that Christie may actually be under-performing in Sandy-affected areas. More on that later.
Distressingly, 58% say they’ll support Ballot Question #2 but only about 1/3 of polled voters (36%) admit to having considered the constitutional implications. Congratulations, morons. You get what you deserve; it’s only a shame that the rest of us have to suffer right along with you. For those of you who don’t have your head firmly inserted into your own rectum, it’s not too late to pull a story from our obscenely massive and informative minimum wage archives and try to educate a co-worker or neighbor before Tuesday.
Click here to read the complete results/peruse the data tables of the Monmouth survey.
Everyone is waiting on one answer tomorrow night: “The only uncertainty is the State Legislature. Christie talked up Republican candidates in the final days, but those legislative district lines were drawn for Democrats,” opined Maurice Carroll, head of the Quinnipiac Poll.
We’ll be the first to tell you…