CD3 Poll: Hill, Lonegan or MacArthur?

By Matt Rooney | The Save Jersey Blog

CD3Ocean County is furiously focused on preserving party discipline as you’re reading this post, Save Jerseyans, but based on the comments of everyone to whom I’ve spoken about it, no one thinks MacArthur will fail to lock down the line at next week’s convention.

But could MacArthur really lose with both lines? Ordinarily no, it’d be a long-shot and few will dispute that, but encouraged Lonegan backers insist this is a perfect storm situation where an unknown from outside the district (MacArthur) is facing a very well-know quantity in GOP circles (Lonegan) notwithstanding the fact that he’s also not a district native. Insiders in state party circles are taking PolitickerNJ’s commissioned CD3 poll results showing Lonegan waaay up more than a little seriously, if not literally.

I reached out to the antithesis of an insider, former Lonegan pollster and occasional Save Jersey contributor Rick Shaftan, to get a different take. The establishment “[p]icked a fight with the wrong guy, in the wrong year,” Rick insists, pointing to polling in other high-profile national GOP primaries which suggest a potentially volatile primary cycle for incumbents.

 

Who are you boosting in CD3 as of right now? Vote your conscience in our online poll right below the fold…

 


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45 thoughts on “CD3 Poll: Hill, Lonegan or MacArthur?

  1. The Moorestown Republican Municipal Committee, along with the Moorestown Council Republicans, all endorsed Tom MacArthur this past weekend for the seat and will support him in the Burlington County committee vote!

  2. Isn’t that great, not 1 but 2 out of towner’s running. Awesome. What choice a carpet-bagger who has promised, (or has…who knows flip-flop a pancake jack) to move to the CD3 to run and a man who at very least has been paying taxes for 8 years or so at his shore house. Not to mention being from the core of NJ GOP. Besides an aside to GOP Elders’s, MacArthur actions will be dissected by us “locals”. I would expect a robust, assertive defense of CD3 GOP seat in Congress. Lonegan, Gonegan go home, go back jo-jo, go back to where your mama’s waiting.

  3. MacArthur did purchase a home in the district, albeit a condo – his shore house is in CD2 (Barnegat Light became part of LoBiondo’s responsibilities following the 2010 census and the redistricting that followed.). Lonegan does now live in the district, albeit in someone else’s home, as he only filed to transfer title on 01/15/2014 – but has not actually done so. Still, the law does not require that one live in the district. Trouble is, most of the local R’s who “would” have run are either too enmeshed with the Gilmore regime, too related to the Birdsall mess, or too easily tied to Ritacco and company.. With only 18% of New Jerseyans registered as Republicans, (and only 32% registered as Democrats), it’s hard for the rank and file to accept any longer that BIG R dominates in Ocean and Burlington – they do so only because BIGGER Unaffiliated go home. With Norcross’ brother now in line for CD1, Aimee Norcross, er, Belgarde, is unlikely to see the big dollar signs that put stars in her eyes last month. Dom Giordano took her apart, but she does have several months and good coaching to bring up her level of polish. Didn’t work much for Adler, though – a far more experienced player. Will CD3 look outside D or R rather than outside the district? What if a qualified candidate with Conservative Values (and the endorsement of the NJ Conservative Party) but who is socially more moderate, was a choice. Someone who lives here – knows the territory – knows what is important to the folks at home, and has a strong understanding of what needs to be done in Washington, without having to be fed a script from party bosses? What if that candidate didn’t wear an R or a D on their breast – but, instead, supported the Constitution, first – ALL of the Constitution? What if that candidate was a proven advocate for women’s rights? For correcting the mistake that was ACA? What if they had a workable means of defeating Citizens United – no, not a petition drive, and not a Constitutional Amendment – but a means that could be applied that he and his fellow candidates actually publically proposed 2 and a half years ago, but had it squashed in the media because he wasn’t a D or an R? What if that candidate was also a community leader, with a broad background in environmental issues? If you could find all that in a candidate – would you nominate them in your own party, if you could? Would you vote for them? Remember, now – no party handcuffs, either – not beholden to GILMORE OR NORCROSS. What if that same candidate had been an integral part in a large anti-corruption movement State-wide? Proposed workable pension reform, and advocated mandatory restoration of the Police, EMS, Corrections Officers, CWA, and Teachers’ Pension dollars pillaged by the several prior administration? What if that candidate was adamant that pay-to-play come to an end, and that those who benefitted illegally should be exposed, prosecuted, and punished? What if that candidate simply wanted to restore what belongs to the citizens – and remove the “bosses” from the mix? Are you tired of being a slave? Choosing between two masters makes you no less of one. You do have an alternative. It will become apparent – although this will likely be censored as well. Here’s a hint – he might be part of a landmark case over election violations that names another candidate in this article as one of the defendants. YOU DO have a BETTER CHOICE – and the folks who haven’t been going to the polls will know about it. That’s about 300,000 people who are neither D nor R. WOULD YOU VOTE OUTSIDE THE LINE for the BETTER CHOICE?

  4. Shaftan is the “antithesis of an insider” only in GOP circles. In Democrat Party circles, in Hudson County Dem machine circles, he is the insider and the right hand man to triple-dipper liberal State Senator/ Mayor/ School Superintendent Nick Sacco.

    Shaftan’s statement makes no sense. “The establishment picked a fight with the wrong guy, in the wrong year”??? Lonegan ran last year as the darling of the establishment and promised it would be his LAST campaign. That promise didn’t last long. Then he promised that he would respect the convention process. That promise lasted until after he got the “establishment” to throw him a big fundraising party, then he forgot about it too. Who picked a fight? Only if you call giving Lonegan money did the “establishment” pick a fight with him. The B.S. bus goes on and on.

  5. What does that mean? Like when he decided that a state income tax increase was a “conservative” position? He doesn’t keep anything “real”, he makes it up as he goes along.

  6. Which Lonegan? For years and years he chastised anyone who had anything good to say about Gov. Christie and now he stumbles over himself because he can’t praise Christie too much, too fast.

  7. Charlie, IMO it was too bad that Anna Little decided not to run against Pallone. I’m sure she had good reasons and can pretty much guess what they were, but I think she would have made a great Congresswoman.

  8. How can anybody take a poll at this time seriously? Sure, everybody knows Lonegan, just like everybody knows Snooki. And Lonegan’s negative numbers are just as high, if not higher, than his positive numbers, including many Republicans. Many successful candidates for Congress started out relatively unknown, but with organizational support and financial backing they usually do pretty well.

  9. We

    District 3 has learned their lesson with Jon Runyan. We want real representation in Congress not a rubber stamping party hack. Steve Lonegan has actually read the Constitution and will represent it in Washington. The Oath of Office will mean something to this man. His is an Oath to the People of New Jersey and not to a party that has given up on the Constitution!

  10. I attended a rally for Steve Lonegan when he ran for Senate last fall where Mark Levin and Sarah Palin spoke and gave him a rousing endorsement. Unfortunately, our blue state chose Booker, but I’d love to have Steve as my CD3 Rep.

  11. I disagree. Lonegan is not a winner nor does he have ability to move beyond his own ego to understand people don’t want him. How many more elections will be keep running in wasting people’s time and money just to soothe his own ego?

  12. Tom Macarthur is the real deal; he is not led by an enormous ego nor does he put himself first. I am so very impressed with him as a person and so were many other former lonegan supporters who actually met and heard what he had to say. Those people are now squarely in MacArthur camp

  13. How many more times is lonegan going to keep running and losing? How many more times are people going to be foolish enough to keep supporting his ego over electing someone who actually has an ability to win?

  14. The Republican Party in Burlington County has gotten complacent and corrupt. They’re scared to death of the Tea Party because they have a lot of questionable perks to lose. Time to shake things up and get back to our roots. Lonegan

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