By The Staff | The Save Jersey Blog
A number of factors, including the legislative map and the Christie-Norcross detente,make seismic changes in the State Assembly’s partisan composition extremely unlikely this cycle, Save Jerseyans. It is what it is.
At best, either party could hope to gain (or lose) a handful of seats, mostly along the coast.
Inland LD38 (Bergen, Passaic) got tougher after the Cappola implosion but low turnout and the district’s tossup character could produce a surprise. Similarly, LD1 (Cape May, Cumberland) and LD2 (Atlantic) are considered too-close-to-call even after an avalanche of Democrat independent expenditures given that they’re competitive territory (the only districts in the state with split Assembly representation – 1 Dem and 1 Republican a piece). LD11 (Monmouth) remains a reach for Dems but BIG money is coming in late with hope of moving the needle…
At stake? Not control of Assembly unfortunately (see above) but plenty of career politicians and operatives could live or die based on the results. That’s always the case. We could also see the stage set for State Senate campaigns in 2017 when those other 40 guys and gals are back on the ballot and, just maybe, a little insight into the 2017 gubernatorial picture. More on that later.
For now – what’s your best educated guess? Let’s have a little fun: