By Matthew Gilson | The Save Jersey Blog
Can anyone overtake Donald Trump in delegates?
It is going to be tough, but not impossible.
The greater possibility lies in the idea of denying Trump enough delegates to win on the first ballot and then coming together behind someone else at the convention. If Trump barnstorms through Super Tuesday this is going to be tough, but if he barnstorms through March 15th it is going to be impossible.
On March 15th, Florida (99 delegates) and Ohio (66) both vote in Winner-Take-All scenarios. If Trump wins both these states, he nets 165 delegates or more than 10% of the total he needs to win the whole thing. If Trump loses both these states, it is going to be much tougher for him to hit that magic number even if he winds up with the plurality of delegates.
So the bad news first: Trump leads John Kasich by 5 points in Ohio and Marco Rubio by 20 in Florida (though the poll is very old and I thing it would be more like 10 if it was polled again if that much). Trump certainly looks well-positioned to win both of these states
Good news? Tactical voting.
Marco Rubio and John Kasich need to accept some harsh realities. First, they are going to need some minor miracles for either to stop Trump. Second, Rubio is not going to win Ohio and Kasich is not going to win Florida. In these states, finish 2nd with 30% or 18th with four votes counts the same.
The further good news? Rubio and Kasich would most likely have enough support together to beat Trump in both places (certainly Kasich in Ohio). If either of them wants to have a viable path to the nomination, Kasich needs to tell his supporters in Florida to vote Rubio and Rubio needs to tell his supporters in Ohio to vote Kasich. A Donald Trump 30% win in both states just about ends the process.
Crazy? Perhaps. It wouldn’t be the first time there was tactical voting and I cannot think of a better use or time than this.
_____
So basically the will of the people be dammed.
Um…yeah. Because only a shithead GOPe stooge (Matt R00ney or Matt Gilson, for instance) would suffer the likes of Kasich the Pietistic or Rubio the Mendacious.
Agree!
No comment was made on the Pennsylvania primary yet