Republican Kim Guadagno’s team insists that the public pollsters are wrong, Save Jerseyans, but the latest round of public polling is holding firm in predicting a decisive Guadagno defeat in next Tuesday’s New Jersey gubernatorial election.
According to Emerson — which has Democrat Phil Murphy pulling away at 47% to 31%, up from his 11-point margin earlier in the fall — Guadagno’s Sanctuary State opposition strategy is actually backfiring.
“The issue of ‘sanctuary cities’ – one of Guadagno’s primary issues- – has divided NJ voters. Thirty-nine percent of voters support sanctuary cities, versus 43% who are opposed – a gap well within the poll’s margin of error. Guadagno generated controversy earlier this month after airing a racially tinged TV ad attacking Murphy for his support for sanctuary cities. The ad – which 55% of likely voters say they have seen or heard about – appears to have backfired, as 45% of those who have seen or heard about it say it made them less likely to vote for Guadagno, versus only 30% who say it made them more likely to support the Lieutenant Governor,” explained the pollsters.
Suffolk’s margin (with leaners) is similar: 49% to 33%. Suffolk didn’t poll the Sanctuary State/City question.
Murphy’s overall lead in the RealClearPolitics polling average is 15.6%.
Chris Christie’s 2013 margin of victory exceeded 22-points when he last ran with Guadagno has his running mate but every public poll has confirmed that the now wildly unpopular Republican governor has remained the single biggest drag on Guadagno’s own campaign.
Polling is much different story for this year’s other gubernatorial contest southbound on I-95 where the Virginia gubernatorial race is anything ranging from an 8-point Gillespie (R) lead to a 17 point Northam (D) advantage depending upon whom you choose to believe.
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