Note: Our final round of SaveJersey.com legislative race ratings presumes (which is distinct from predicting, btw, so don’t get all hot-and-bothered by this) an 8-to-12 point Murphy victory statewide on November 7th. If the public polling is ultimately validated? And Guadagno loses by 15, 16 or even 20 points? New Jersey Republicans could easily lose races in LD2, LD11, LD16 or even LD39. But we think the public polling does share some similarities with flawed 2016 state polling insofar as it’s over-estimating variables including overall turnout and the likelihood that “likely” Democrat voters will show up to vote. So we’re choosing to be conservative.
The following races are ranked, in descending order, based on the likelihood of a change in party control:
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1. District 7
Republicans are starting in a hole this cycle because retiring long-time state Senator Diane Allen’s seat is a GOP write-off. Assemblyman Troy Singleton (D) is presumptive, and his Assembly Democrat running mates will coast as well.
Forecast: Safe Democrat Pick-Up (for State Senate)
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2. District 2
Republican Assemblyman Chris Brown’s internal polling position in his State Senate battle with Democrat state Senator Colin Bell (recently sworn in to replace the deceased Jim Whelan) is very strong according to Republican AND Democrat sources. The real question here is whether Brown can pull running mates Vincent Sera and Brenda Taube, in that order of polling strength, I’m told, across the finish line on November 7th. Most insiders tell me that a Brown-Mazzeo-Sera result is very possible but by no means assured. The Assembly race is close. FYI: There HAS been a late, six-figure Democrat Super PAC investment in the district BUT, it seems, the real target isn’t Brown but the Assembly under card AND residual out-of-district Democrat and undecided voters in LD3 and LD11 who are in the same South Jersey media market. More on that in a second….
Forecast: Lean Republican Pick Up for State Senate
Toss up for Assembly/Possible split (Mazzeo + Sera or Taube)
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3. District 38
If you need proof that New Milford Councilwoman Kelly Langschultz is breathing down incumbent state Senator Bob Gordon’s neck? Check out this exceedingly desperate mailer from the Democrat camp. You don’t push that out in the final week if you’re up comfortably. It’s a brutal, defamatory attack designed to blunt momentum.
Momentum is what Langschultz has in her favor. Running with a youthful, energetic ticket comprised of 25 year old Glen Rock Councilman Bill Leonard and local pastor Christopher Wolf, Langschultz’s laser focus on “bread and butter” issues, taxes, and Gordon’s poor stewardship of NJ Transit as chairman of the responsible State Senate committee has moved this one from “Lean Democrat” to “Weak Democrat.” The Sanctuary State issue is playing well here, too, and veteran Republican consultant Chris Russell is reportedly making hay of it while the sun still shines.
What’s changed here since September? Money. Langschultz raised “enough” (six figures, which is good in any environment for a GOP challenger) and Gordon is running low in part because of the NJEA’s decision to go all-in on LD3 (see here and below). She can get it done and MIGHT just pull one or two running mates along with her, too.
What’s keeping us from designating this one as a genuine toss up? Bergen is, as ever, a bit of a mess for the Republican Party. Insiders have low confidence in the GOTV effort here at all levels, and Murphy is expected to carry the county.
Forecast: Weak Democrat Hold (Rating Change)
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4. District 3
Here’s what we said last time: “Little known fact: Steve Sweeney has never recorded 60% or greater of the vote in a State Senate election. More interesting facts: Sweeney is being barraged by the NJEA this year. The semi-competitiveness of the district, the barrage of NJEA money going AGAINST the Democrat, and the strong campaign of Salem GOP Chair Fran Greiner have made Sweeney sweat a little more than usual. The popular union strong man and titular leader of the South Jersey Democrats still may sneak by, but it looks like he may be going ten rounds. Did we mention that this district is one of only two Democrat districts in New Jersey carried by Trump?”
What’s new: a recent poll from a reputable firm showing Sweeney leading by only 6-points and, to make matters more complicated, facing a financial disadvantage down the home stretch. A late infusion of carpenters’ union cash might save the day. Might. The NJEA’s messaging is starting to make a dent after a strategy adjustment about one month ago. So we’re moving this one from “Lean Democrat” to “Weak Democrat,” too.
Forecast: Weak Democrat Hold (Rating Change)
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5. District 11
We mentioned above ^^^ the recent Jersey Shore-targeted Democrat Super PAC ad buy designed, it part, to save Sweeney AND boost Vin Gopal. It may already be too late for him. He was trailing (in Democrat polling) in September and we’re told he continues to trail in Democrat polling in October. Republican incumbent Jennifer Beck’s margins aren’t big in the internals but they’re consistent and that’s not insignificant. She’s favored to survive unless the top of the ticket dramatically under-performs in Monmouth County, Kim Guadagno’s suburban home base. Gopal is simply too liberal for the district (even with towns like Red Bank and Asbury Park to level the playing field), and the NJEA money bomb that blew Beck’s Assembly running mates out of the water in 2015 isn’t materializing for the aforementioned reasons. Gopal’s incumbent freshman running mates may nevertheless survive on name recognition.
Forecast: Weak Republican Retention (Rating Change)
Lean Democrat Hold for Assembly
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6. District 16
Forecast: Weak Republican Retention for State Senate (Rating Change)
Toss up for Assembly/Possible Split (Zwicker + Simon or Caliguire)
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7. District 14
District 14 is a frustratingly tough nut to crack in the post-Christie universe where New Jersey Republicans and public sector unions are in open warfare (with the notable, strange exception of the “enemy of my enemy” dynamic in LD3). Cuban American businesswoman and Hamilton Councilwoman Ileana Schirmer is a strong candidate but the money isn’t there this year and her margin with incumbent Linda Greenstein isn’t closing like what we’re seeing/hearing in LD38. If Guadagno somehow engineers an upset? Don’t rule Schirmer out.
Forecast: Lean Democrat Hold
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8. District 39
Republicans are getting an unusual challenge in this reliably red Republican district thanks, in large part, to an internal Democrat civil war over the speaker ship. The Reader’s Digest version: Speaker Prieto is backing the challengers’ uphill campaign in exchange for their support in the upcoming caucus vote should they pull it off. Money is coming in from Prieto faction-aligned sources. Still, the 39th is unlikely to flip in whole or in part unless Kim Guadagno does ultimately lose by a worst case scenario, 20-point or worse margin.
Forecast: Likely Republican Retention
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9. District 40
Democrats have flirted with this district (because two of the incumbents are mid-term subs and one seat is open), but outside power brokers haven’t committed any cash to date. GOP State Senator Kristin Corrado is reportedly developing a tactical relationship with Democrat state Senate President State Sweeney, and time has run out for a hypothetical late money bomb to make much difference.
Forecast: Strong Republican Retention
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10. District 1
Chris Christie has taken multiple South Jersey districts off of the map in the Democrat Machine’s favor, Save Jerseyans; LD3 is only competitive because it’s red AND the NJEA is playing for revenge. Jeff Van Drew — a masquerading moderate Democrats — is deeply popular in his southernmost geopolitical stronghold, surviving multiple GOP attempts to take him since his 2007 ascent (he’s even since recaptured the Assembly seat taken from his team in 2013 when former running mate Nelson Albano behaved poorly during a traffic stop). Republicans have given up after a decade of watering a tree that’s born no fruit.
Forecast: Strong Democrat Hold
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