WINNERS
- Jeff Van Drew
Obvious? Sure. But it’s no less amazing for being obvious: Van Drew ran (and won) as a Democrat for a decade in a red legislative district. Then he ran for Congress in 2018, the perfect year for a Democrat in a Trump-lite district. Then, right when his own party was poised to deny him renomination, Van Drew worked with the White House to engineer a career-extending party switch. The newly-minted Republican incumbent is now heavily favored to win in June and I think November, too, since Democrats seem determined to nominate a far-left opponent. To say this guy is a political cat with nine-plus lives is an understatement.
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- Mike Testa
The somewhat bad news: State Senator Mike Testa (R-1) went from being South Jersey’s hot top new Republican leader/power broker to a secondary albeit notable player in a larger national story, all in little over a month. Van Drew is the new top dog in deep South Jersey (outside of Camden County) with a direct line to Donald Trump himself.
The objectively good news: Testa (one of Trump’s state campaign leaders) is now close to a lock for his own reelection since Van Drew’s defection has gutted (or appropriated) most of what remained of the Congressman’s formidable LD1 political organization. Testa can now focus his own formidable skills and energies on accruing influence in Trenton and solidifying his burgeoning, social media-fueled following in preparation for future moves of his own (like Congress, whenever Van Drew moves on? Or a 2021 or 2025 state race?). Testa can be the state’s new conservative “it” guy – much the same as Lonegan and Webber before him – who supporters believe could actually go the distance.
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Bill Stepien Ron Filan
Long undervalued by a North Jersey-dominated NJGOP political professional establishment, Ocean County native Ron Filan has gradually gained respect, though sometimes it’s been grudging, in recent years through his inspiringly grinding state party and RNC victory work as well as his no-nonsense style (he tells clients/employers what they need to hear). His new post as Van Drew’s campaign manager formalizes his status as South Jersey’s new preeminent operative. No one – north or south of Trenton – will ever be able to look down at the scrappy Jersey Shore political tactician ever again.
Filan is also a proponent of something yours truly has long espoused, Save Jerseyans: the importance of prioritizing South Jersey. The era of believing the NJGOP’s future lies in persuading LD14 state workers or LD21 “security moms” is over. If the NJGOP wants to keep its momentum going? All roads to Republican relevance run south of the Trenton line.
- Bill Stepien
The ex-Christie campaign manager and White House political director is the ultimate survivor. Cast into the ash heap by Christie as a sacrificial lamb in the early moments of the Bridgegate crisis, Stepien made a major comeback in the Trump era and now, heading in 2020, is emerging as a top national political consultant. He’s serving the President’s reelect effort directly. His company is also the general consulting firm for Minnesota’s U.S. Senate race (a rare GOP pick up opportunity in a top Trump target state) in addition to NJ-11 (for challenge Jerry Langer) and NJ-02 (Van Drew’s defense). As if that wasn’t enough, he’s the force behind a pro-Kean super pac in NJ-07. Stepien is right in the center of the action next year and very much in the driver’s seat of his own destiny.
- Harry Hurley
The popular Atlantic/Cape May morning radio host is a long-time Van Drew cheerleader (critics would say apologist), but the relentlessly pro-JVD Hurley is undeniably consistent if nothing else. He had a good relationship with Lobo. With Van Drew? He’s going to be the voice of Team Van Drew’s South Jersey political agenda.
LOSERS
- South Jersey Democrats
Losing LD1 and NJ-02 in under two months is an undeniably rough blow to the fabled South Jersey Machine and its cultivated reputation for manifest destiny. South Jersey’s never been “blue”; the Camden organization’s strength distorted the region’s true political hue which is actually a shade somewhere between purple and light red. Democrat hopes of retaking seats on the Salem Freeholder board and Atlantic’s, too, just became a bit more fantastical. If Cumberland goes belly up in November (see below)? Democrats will be pushed back to Camden/Burlington representing a momentous realignment of partisan boundaries from even a few years ago.
- Cumberland County Democrats
A working class county where Testa just did very well, Democrats must fend over a Republican takeover bid in 2020. With Van Drew and Testa doing a county-wide MAGA barnstorm for the GOP ticket? Assuming that is was happens? The Republican Party’s odds of a historic reconquest success just improved dramatically.
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Steve Sweeney GOP consultants not named Bill Stepien
New Jersey has an impressive and expanding cadre of Republican professionals, some with very deep roots and a lot of history in their respective theaters of operation. Fallen GOP strongholds, shifting tactical trends, generational changes and now Stepien’s explosive reentry on the state political scene shakes things up a bit moving forward. Then again, there’s arguably plenty of work to go around if Republicans can retake some of their lost Garden State territory in 2020 and 2021.
- Steve Sweeney and his Southwest Jersey organization
Two New Jersey legislative districts (1) voted for Trump in 2016 but (2) had all-Democrat legislative delegations as of Election 2019: LD1 and LD3. Team Testa conquered all three LD1 seats in November. If Republicans want to expand their legislative majority? Sweeney’s district is an obvious place to start in 2021. Republicans should also make a play in Gloucester, too, where Trump won in 2016 and Republicans held two freeholder posts in the not-too-distant past.
- LD2 Democrats
See above. The Assembly incumbents were saved by absentee ballots in 2019. That’s not a promising sign for the future as things continue to trend Republican at 30,000 feet.
- Van Drew’s GOP primary opponents
A few months ago? David Richter and Brian Fitzherbert were battling for endorsements and, justifiably, looking at Van Drew as a tough but beatable opponent. Things change quickly in this world. Both men (and Bob Patterson, and former NJ-01 candidate) now face a very uphill fight against a well-known incumbent with full party backing, right-wing media adoration, and President Trump’s warm embrace.
- Phil Murphy/Gurbir Grewal
While South Jersey is hardly Princeton or Montclair or even the Bergen suburbs, it’s still part of a Garden State which Phil Murphy’s woke administration insists is down with his party’s far-left “values.” Is that true? Republicans ran hard at Murphy in NJ-02 and LD8 (in Burlco) this year and did very well. Surprise surprise: high taxes and illegal driver’s licenses don’t play well in districts were super Wawa’s are far more commonplace than Starbucks cafes.
TO BE DETERMINED
- The South Jersey GOP
Trump is happy. Will the South Jersey GOP feel the same way two years from now? Is Van Drew going to aggressively party build? And take on the South Jersey Machine? Or will he stay in his lane, play nice and honor old inter-party understandings? TBD. The addition of Filan to his team his promising sign but we won’t know until we know.
- South Jersey Voters
Van Drew’s high-profile defection and the competitiveness of nearby NJ-03 (Andy Kim) places South Jersey at the center of the Election 2020 saga. As South Jersey goes, so goes… America?
- Conservatism
Van Drew has been (to date) a moderate at best. He’s no Reaganite. We’ll see if his views have “evolved” now that he’s a Republican. What those looking for a national angle will want to know: is Van Drew’s jump a sign the Trump-era GOP is going to be less ideological? And more populist, like the president himself? Probably. At least for the next 5-6 years. Possibly well beyond the end of the Trump train’s retirement.
- Other 2020 battleground candidates in New Jersey
Van Drew’s flip moves NJ-02 from a toss-up to lean or (I’d argue) likely Republican. One piece’s move on the chess board affects every other. Will NJ-02 recede as a top battleground? Meaning money from both sides flows elsewhere, like NJ-03 or NJ-05? Or will angry “progressives” target Van Drew with big money and siphon attention from other hot spots? We’ll know soon enough.
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