By Matt Rooney
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As I’ve repeatedly had to remind some readers in recent days, Save Jerseyans, this website has been decidedly pro-Trump over the course of his first term because this is a conservative site. We agree with most of what he’s done. We’re nevertheless not a MAGA site. The difference? We’re not going to pretend that every Trump shortcoming or failure is actually a super-secret strategy designed to ‘own the libs.’
Case in point: he’s probably losing right now. I can acknowledge that! I strongly recommend you do the same.
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Relax, okay? As I’ve also said on many occasions (including recently), November is a couple of political lifetimes away. A lot can and will change. Four years ago at this same point in the 2016 race? We did see polls showing the Donald down +9 or even +12 points much like many of today’s polls suggesting double-digit Biden nationwide leads.
But it is worth noting that – unlike in 2016 – the RCP average shows a 9.5% Biden advantage today (June 22, 2020) as opposed to the 5.8% average Clinton lead the then-premptive Democrat nominee enjoyed on June 22, 2016.
Remember: while state polling was off in 2016, the national polling was pretty close at the end (Clinton’s national win by 2.1% vs. the 3.2% projected by the RCP average). Approximately 107,000 votes across three states swung the Electoral College to Donald Trump. If the current pattern persists? And Trump continues to run a few or even several points behind his 2016 national pace? It’s probably safe to assume that means he’s underperforming his 2016 margin not only nationally but also in places like the Philadelphia and Atlanta suburbs where he can’t afford to lose much strength.
With all of that established, we need to ask the big question: why is Trump probably losing?
There are plenty of possible culprits in our crowded 2020 news cycle hellscape, but I think it’s actually pretty simple and shouldn’t be over-complicated:
First, COVID-19 killed the economy.
Trump’s single greatest strength heading into his reelection battle was the argument that, put succinctly, “yeah, you might’ve lived Barack Obama better as a person, but I’m making you a lot of money and he didn’t.” Most humans are willing to overlook a lot if they’re not worried about where their next meal is coming from. Wages were rising, unemployment was at historic lows, and 401(k) balances were strong. With the economy hobbled by continued shutdowns and likely to remain well-below peak Trump levels through November? Normally reliable Trump states like Florida are suddenly on the board for Biden and swing Midwestern states risk reverting to their pre-Trump orientations.
But the economic component may not matter as much as it once did, and not in a way that helps the Donald.
Causation #2: the “security moms” of the 2000s are now grandparents. They’ve been succeeded by the “woke moms” of present day who have different values than their generational predecessors. Very different.
I see the difference vividly in my own suburban New Jersey neighborhood which was admittedly never Republican in recent memory but which has begun to drift further left with every passing cycle. Parents have encouraged their kids to write “black lives matter” on the sidewalk with chalk or on poster board with crayon adorning windows. Every block has at least a few of these signs crafted by the coronavirus-stranded student of a local crunch Karen.
15 years ago? You would’ve seen “God Bless America” or “support our troops” or something similar. No more. Politics follows culture. Culture dictates politics. “The economy, stupid” is over. For now. The end result is a massive gender gap in the burbs which could overwhelm the president’s coalition – which includes white older women – in key battleground states. Critical to our analysis is the fact that these “woke moms” aren’t disturbed by riots in the same way as their mothers might’ve been or certainly their grandparent were; they learned all about systemic racism in college and believe decapitating statues and robbing Athleta is, at worse, an understandable reaction to the white male patriarchy.
Karen + COVID = trouble. But not necessarily defeat…
Issue #3: Trump.
The President could overcome a lot of these challenges – and win back younger women who own small businesses and/or aren’t woke (they still exist) – if he was projecting strength.
Right now he’s not. He threatens blue state governors on Twitter for allowing civil unrest to foment but fails to follow through with any action. AG Barr raises the specter of intervening against states abusing COVID-19 emergency powers but does nothing. Phil Murphy got his portal bridge cash out of a widely-covered dinner with Trump at the President’s Bedminster golf clubp; what did Trump get? Other than indigestion in Tulsa? His failure to push back on COVID-19 lockdowns isn’t just an economic problem; it’s destroying his brand.
Again, many people who don’t like the Donald are willing to overlook his annoying tweeting and coarse behavior because he was perceived to be getting sh*t done.
No longer.
Karen + COVID + projected weakness = President Uncle Joe and Veep Kamala Harris.
What’s to be done? What can be done?
Presidents can’t do much to directly influence the economy. Another direct cash infusion wouldn’t solve the problem; that $600 served only as a perverse incentive to keep some workers at home longer than necessary. Populism can easily backfire and often does… a story for another post.
The Donald CAN do the following:
(1) Project tangible strength. For example: Bush Sr. nationalized the guard after Hurricane Hugo and the LA Riots. Past presidents used the Guard to enforce Civil Rights. The military SHOULD ALWAYS be a last resort in domestic affairs. I’d argue we’re now in ‘last resort’ territory thanks to radical blue states governors. If they’re going to trample upon the Constitution? And allow CHAZ-esque anarchy to reign unaddressed in our streets? There’s a clear role for the federal government in this crisis. Yes, the Media would cry bloody murder over such a move, but Trump shouldn’t care because he’ll once again have a winning contrast to play upon between himself and the Left. Just talking about law and order isn’t enough in the present situation. He needs to enforce law and order – personally – if the Democrats refuse to do so.
(2) Offer an alternative. Before the current COVID-19/George Floyd national combustion? Trump was on course to win a larger percentage of the black vote than a Republican president has managed in decades. That’s because younger black voters were less hostile to him than their parents and grandparents had been to previous Republican president. Even with the suburban ‘awokening’ afoot, Democrats can’t maintain vice grip on states like Pennsylvania and Michigan without overwhelming black support. The difference between Obama’s 99% margin in some Philly neighborhoods versus Clinton’s 89% or 92% helped make the difference statewide. Trump made it possible by audaciously daring to ask black voters “what have the Democrats done for you lately” and some began to respond. He needs to resume that 2016 conversation ASAP. Black voters need to hear an alternative to Marxism right now. So too do non-black voters who are being told by the Media and entertainment culture that this is a “policing problem” which, as you and I know, is actually a gross simplification.
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To summarize: Trump can still shock the world this fall.
He can’t do it without an immediate course correction as laid out above (and a little economic luck which could materialize absent an autumn COVID-19 strain mutation). I do think there’s something to the theory that pollsters still don’t quite get HOW to poll Trump’s voters. That doesn’t mean the polls – like the stock market relative to the economy – aren’t still an important measure of health albeit an imperfect one.
The MAGA crowd isn’t doing their hero any favors by pretending everything will resolve on its own since it’s all part of a plan. It won’t because it’s not.
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Save Jersey’s Founder and Blogger-in-Chief, MATT ROONEY is a nationally-noted and respected New Jersey political commentator. When he’s not on-line, radio or television advocating for conservative reform and challenging N.J. power-brokers, Matt is a practicing attorney at the law firm of DeMichele & DeMichele in Haddon Heights (Camden County).
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