By Matt Rooney
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I’m old enough to remember when “flattening the curve” was the goal, Save Jerseyans.
Back in the uncertain days of early April 2020 (April 6th specifically), Politico New Jersey reporteed that “officials expect to see infections and hospitalizations peak between April 19 and May 11, according to models Murphy presented during the briefing. The state could see anywhere between 86,000 and 509,000 patients test positive, with hospitalizations ranging between 9,000 and 36,000.“
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“If we keep our current practice, we can get through our peak with the hospital beds we are preparing, the new wings, the reinstated buildings, the field medical stations,” Murphy told reporters. “It will be tough, it will be stressful, but our health system can get through this intact.”
And we did ultimatey get through the peak just fine. Better than expected, in fact.
As of June 23rd, New Jersey reported 169,734 positive tests out of 1,283,451 conducted – a low-end outcome by any estimate. Ventilator usage and hospitalizations peaked on April 14th (earlier than projected). Murphy will run for reelection in 2021 insisting that his draconian and ongoing economic lockdown did the trick. We’ve written extensively about how that’s not supported by the actual available evidence.
The goal now, we’re told, is defeating the virus with the vaccine which may-or-may not be here by the end of 2020. Or 2021. If at all? The goal posts moved.
Changing definitions of “VC Day” – Victory Over Coronavirus – also helps explain why the Media is freaking the fig out over upticks of reported COVID-19 cases in certain states, some of which had less-strict lockdown measures in place than New Jersey or New York or which ended their lockdowns earlier in the spring. Some of the recent headlines aren’t just alarming; they’re panic-inducing.
Relax.
First, as President Trump has correctly noted, part of the explanation for recent spikes is expanded testing capacity. We’re conducting hundreds of thousands of more tests DAILY than a relatively short time ago. For example, the U.S. logged just 151,475 tests on April 6th. On June 23rd, then nation logged 511,484. Hospitalization rates have nevertheless continued to steadily fall. As suspected, the vast majority of people who get this thing end up with no or relatively minor symptoms.
Second, as I just explained, there’s no evidence of a debilitating surge in hospitalizations. Remember: the original goal was to prevent our healthcare system from being overwhelmed. There’s no evidence that that is close to happening anywhere.
New Jersey reported 57 new deaths on June 23rd.
Georgia – which reopened in late April – saw only 40 deaths on the 23rd. Keep in mind that while Georgia is less densely populated than the Garden State – has about 1 million more people and the densely-populated Atlanta metro area. It’s currently experiencing an increase in new hospitalizations but not a dramatic one.
Florida is fetching a ton of undeserved negative attention for its reopening strategy. Undeserved. It has almost 2.5-times the population of New Jersey yet reported just 65 deaths on June 23rd (its worse day was 83 deaths back in late April, no where close to New Jersey’s grim 458 death toll on April 30th). Even with an admittedly significant spike of new Florida hospitalizations translates to approximately 3/4 of hospital capacity still available and a stable number of deaths.
Oh, and another thing… this virus has overwhelming prayed on long-term care residents, but in the state most famous as a retiree destination, Florida has done a FAR better job at protecting its elderly than New Jersey and New York.
Like I said… relax. Officials have warned for months that reopening WOULD result in an uptick in COVID-19 activity (duh). And so it has! But there’s no indication to date that those “surges” are on track to undermine the original goal of protecting our healthcare system, and states like Georgia are surging ahead of New Jersey in the all-important category of economic recovery.
As with most things in our current environment, concerns over new cases – a largely irrelevant measure of the pandemic’s impact on our society – are primarily motivated by politics, not science.
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Save Jersey’s Founder and Blogger-in-Chief, MATT ROONEY is a nationally-noted and respected New Jersey political commentator. When he’s not on-line, radio or television advocating for conservative reform and challenging N.J. power-brokers, Matt is a practicing attorney at the law firm of DeMichele & DeMichele in Haddon Heights (Camden County).
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