It’s always dangerous to put too much stock in summertime polling, Save Jerseyans, but one number from the latest Monmouth University poll jumps out as presenting a daunting challenge for Jack Ciattarelli:
61% of registered voters don’t have an opinion of him.
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Murphy’s lead among registered voters is allegedly massive (52% to 36%), buoyed by a one-million strong statewide Democrat registration advantage and Ciattarelli’s low name recognition.
As is Monmouth’s custom, two voter models were presented based upon different possible turnout scenarios: Ciattarelli’s deficit ranged from 11-points to 19-points.
“Both candidates claim formidable leads among voters who identify with their respective parties, but Murphy holds a narrow edge (44% to 38%) among voters who do not see themselves as aligned with either party,” the Monmouth poll explains in its report released Wednesday morning. “Regionally, Murphy leads in both the northern (60% to 29%) and central (52% to 38%) parts of the state, while South Jersey is tilted slightly toward Ciattarelli (45%, to 40% for Murphy).”
You’d never know Phil Murphy killed 8,000+ nursing home residents, 1/3 of small businesses, and the state continues to have the country’s worst COVID-19 death rate: registered voters prefer Murphy on covid response (46%) to Ciattarelli (21%). Again, if true, some of this may be “hard” partisan opinion while much of it might be soft. By “soft,” I mean Republicans have failed thus far to challenge the premise of many of Murphy’s COVID-19 measures. Ciattarelli’s first statewide ad addressed taxes, and he narrowly (30-29) leads Murphy on that particular issue.
Click here to read the full results.
Monmouth’s gubernatorial track record is mixed, but it’s safe to safe the poll skews Democratic.
The outfit’s final 2017 poll predicted a 14-point Murphy victory; the future governor went on to defeat Kim Guadagno by 12. Its fall 2009 Monmouth poll (conducted in conjunction with Gannett) forecasted a 2-point Corzine win; Chris Christie ultimately prevailed by a few points over the incumbent Democrat.
Drawing too many comparisons with past election cycles is difficult in part because there has been WAY less public polling of the Ciattarelli vs. Murphy match-up than we saw at this point in 2017, 2013 and 2009.
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