As of Saturday morning, 2,524,275 votes had been counted for the 2021 gubernatorial contest.
That’s a significant uptick from 2017 (2,147,415) and 2013 (2,120,866), but only marginally better than 2009 (2,423,684) when Chris Christie defeated Jon Corzine. There are about 600,000 more New Jerseyans living in-state today than 12 years ago based upon census estimates. So, as a matter of % of the total population, turnout was down in 2021 vs. 2009.
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We’re still counting so that number is likely to come up a bit. But still… there were 5,227,896 registered voters on Election Day 2009 and 6,575,904 last Tuesday; that’s 1.3+ million more voters!
It’s a notable result given how there have never been more ways to vote. Vote by mail laws – concerning both how people can register (see the motor voter law) and how long they have to return those ballots (don’t need to arrive until almost a full week later) – have been dramatically liberalized in recent years. This fall, the state experimented with its first ever “early voting” period which ran through Halloween. None of it seemed to make a difference.
What gives?
I think there are a few things afoot. Concerning 2021 specifically, Democrat enthusiasm wasn’t particularly strong given events in D.C., and in New Jersey, polls predicting a Murphy landslide undoubtedly kept at least some Republican voters from venturing out into the cold rain.
I also think (1) the Democrats’ self-interested quest to make voting “easier” and (2) instilling confidence in our electoral system are goals that are actually mutually-exclusive. It’s taking longer than ever to settle races as a result. The Left cites Donald Trump for being a bad loser, but for every Orange Man there’s also one (or two) Stacey Abrams types. When every election is a zero sum game? It’s not hard to see why there’s reluctance to throw in the towel. The proximate issue, however, isn’t partisanship but HOW we run our elections.
This is a process story. Counting VBM ballots for weeks, dumping them in the middle of the night, premature AP calls and a complete lack of transparency coming out of boards of elections and some county offices concerning what’s even outstanding is contributing to a perception – rightly or wrongly – that our elections aren’t on the up-and-up. Modern elections are also exhausting for their long duration, something that doesn’t combat the perception that we’re slouching towards banana republic status. Poll worker “errors” and illegals casting provisional ballots (?) are also… unhelpful.
None of this should surprise anyone. Declining confidence in election integrity doesn’t exactly encourage participation in the minds of many casual voters especially outside of a presidential contest when you can’t avoid noticing the campaigns even if you wanted to.
We’re at a fork in the road. If we’re going to count for 2-3 weeks? Then we need to stop “projecting” winners within 24-48 hours of the election. The horse race polls (which are increasingly wrong) don’t help either.
The other, better option is to get more efficient, tighten up some of these COVID-19 era early voting laws, and guarantee that all votes are accounted for by the end of election night (even if the final count takes an extra 24 hours). Florida is never a basket case… post-2000. They learned their lesson. We need to learn, too, and act accordingly. Either way, we should ALL be able to agree that this is a discussion worth having. The current system isn’t working assuming, of course, you genuinely care about Americans believing in American democracy.
In healthy democratic systems? People wake, head to the polls on Election Day, and participate in a civic sacrament that involves an iota of effort. Maybe you need to cut out of work 20 minutes early, bring your kids with you, or wake up an hour before your alarm to make it happen. My own parents (who worked and went to night school, too) did it. Plenty of young men and women died so that you would have the right to head out in a light cold rain to pass judgment on our government. Stop bitching and insisting that your polling place should be a convenience store! Freedom isn’t free, and it’s also not convenient. Everyone would do it if was.
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